Gale Warning 816, NWS Anchorage, AK

378 
FZAK62 PAFC 251203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260300-
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 979 MB KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES FROM THE
WESTERN BERING THIS MORNING TO THE CENTRAL BERING LATE FRI NIGHT. THE
KAMCHATKA LOW MOVES TO NEAR 55N 168E SAT MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST TO
NEAR 55N 176E AT 982 MB LATE SAT NIGHT. A 983 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 55N
175W SAT MORNING AND MOVES TO NEAR 57N 170W AT 977 MB LATE SAT NIGHT.
A 983 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 55N 162W SAT EVENING AND MOVES TO NEAR 55N
158W AT 980 MB LATE SAT NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF 56N...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. N OF 56N...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO
25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S OF 57N...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
N OF 57N...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT...S OF 56N...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. N OF
56N...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E OF 176W...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. W OF 176W...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 
10 TO 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.   
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W OF 176W...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. E OF 176W...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-260300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W OF 168W...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. E OF 168W...VARIABLE
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

271 
FZAK62 PAFC 260017
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261500-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 MB LOW MOVES TO NEAR 54N 170E SAT MORNING...THEN DRIFTS TO
NEAR 53N 179E MON AFTERNOON. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA DURING THIS
TIME. A 982 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR 54N 168W SAT
AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR 56N 156W SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF 56N...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
N OF 56N...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S OF 57N...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
N OF 57N...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...S OF 57N...SW 25 TO 35 KT. N OF 57N...E WIND 30 TO 40
KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N OF 57N...SE WIND 50 KT. S OF 57N...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW
20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. S OF 57N...S WIND
20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-261500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 25 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY E OF 167W IN THE EVENING. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
56N. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

822 
FZAK62 PAFC 261203
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270300-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 MB LOW NEAR 54N 165E MOVES TO NEAR 56N 178E AT 978 MB LATE SAT
NIGHT...THEN TO NEAR 55N 176W AT 984 MB LATE SUN NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A 987 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR 
54N 168W THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR 57N 152W SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AT 983 MB.

$$

PKZ411-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N OF 57N...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. S OF
57N...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 56N...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW. 
S OF 56N...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...N OF 56N...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. S OF
56N...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N OF 57N...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. S OF 57N...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO S 20 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. S OF 57N...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...N OF 58N...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. S OF 58N...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-270300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.  
.TONIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. S OF 57N...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...N OF 57N...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. S OF 57N...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

577 
FZAK62 PAFC 270027
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271500-
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 MB LOW NEAR 56N 174E MOVES TO NEAR 53N 173W AT 989 MB MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT. A 979 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND MOVES TO NEAR 57N 154W SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ411-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. N OF 56N...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. S OF 56N...NW 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT NOV 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A VERY LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND WESTERN BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM IS ACTIVE...BUT IS
WELL SOUTH OF OUR DOMAIN AND IS NOT PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN OUR
WEATHER.

THE CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES AND
SURFACE LOWS THAT ARE FLOWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF. SEVERAL
LOW LEVEL FEATURES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR THIS MORNING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF THAT ARE BRINGING SOUTHCENTRAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. THE MOST PERSISTENT FEATURE IS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE DOWN COOK
INLET THAT BENDS TOWARD KACHEMAK BAY. THIS COMMON WINTER CONVERGENCE
ZONE HAS BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO KACHEMAK BAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO UNTIL THE GRADIENT SWITCHES LATER THIS WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NOT SURPRISING THE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME PICKING OUT THE MULTIPLE VORTICES SPINNING AROUND THE LARGER
PARENT CIRCULATION. THIS IS LEADING TO QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN
THE FIRST 48 HOURS THAT WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST.
GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE NAM/GFS...EVEN MORE SO WITH THE STRONGER
NAM...DEVELOPING A LOW AND SWINGING IT NORTHWEST TOWARD MIDDLETON
ISLAND. THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THIS LOW A BIT WEAKER AND TAKE IT
EAST OF CORDOVA. THE 18Z NAM IS NOW PICKING UP ON A SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS AND FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE EC/UK. THE WEAKER
FEATURE MAY BE WHAT THE LOWER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE FIXATING
ON...MOST LIKELY MISSING ON THE STRONGER OF THE TWO LOWS MOVING
TOWARD MIDDLETON ISLAND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SHORT TERM FORECAST IS LARGELY FOCUSED ON THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER = .15 IN) IS RESULTING IN
VERY SMALL SNOW FLAKES. THE SNOW RATIO EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS A
SURPRISING 13 TO 1...IMPRESSIVE FOR THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. IF
SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND RATIO SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY...IT WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE MESOSCALE LOWS
THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON. IT IS A SAFE BET TO
CONTINUE THE LIGHT SNOW WORDING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH
FRIDAY UNTIL THE NORTHERN GULF LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO BE DISPLACED BY
THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. A TRIPLE POINT LOW
DEVELOPS SOUTH OF KODIAK EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH
GULF COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOOKS LIKE MORE LIGHT OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR SNOW
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW REMAINING IN THE SAME REGION.

THE SILVER LINING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE DURING THE
WEEKEND...REBOUNDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.SOUTHWEST AK AND BERING SEA...RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER OUT WEST
WITH STRATUS AND FLURRIES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH CONTINUED COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE BERING SEA WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY
BEING REPORTED ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA AND RAPIDLY
TRAVERSES EAST TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS AS RESULT OF THE NEXT LOW INVADING FROM THE WEST...AND THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CHASING THE TRANQUIL WEATHER AWAY. THE
PARENT LOW EVENTUALLY OCCLUDES AND DISSIPATES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ALONG THE CHAIN AND
NOT SPREADING IT INLAND. THE AFOREMENTIONED TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS
NEAR KODIAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS
RESUME ACROSS THE BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 170 172 175 176 180 185 411 412 413 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB NOV 11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1210 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

AKZ101-111-250700-

...THANKSGIVING DAY BRINGS LIGHT SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS WEAK SYSTEM IS HELPING TO ENHANCE
SNOWFALL AROUND THE REGION TODAY. THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IS LIMITING SNOWFALL TOTALS AROUND THE AREA.
SO FAR...SNOW HAS ACCUMULATED JUST OVER ONE INCH. THE STEADY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

IMPACTS...BE AWARE THAT THE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LEADING TO VERY
FINE SNOW FLAKES THAT ARE EASILY PICKED UP AND TRANSPORTED. REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS ARE COMING IN WITH VISIBILITIES
REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES ON THE GLENN HIGHWAY AS VEHICLES PICK
UP AND STIR THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. PLEASE SLOW DOWN AND
LEAVE PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN YOURSELF AND THE VEHICLES IN FRONT OF
YOU.

AB NOV 11