Gale Warning 803, NWS Anchorage, AK

763 
FZAK62 PAFC 162349
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 989 MB LOW NEAR 50N 178E WILL MOVE TO 57N 175E AT 971 MB WED NIGHT
AND THEN MOVE NORTHWEST. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT AND WEAKEN.
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 57N 175E THU NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 52N 177E AT 975 MB
FRI AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 25 
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST WED NOV 16 2011

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

766 
FZAK62 PAFC 171250
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 57N 175E WILL WEAKEN TO 999 MB NEAR 58N 153E FRI
NIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 60N 170W THU NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE NEAR 59N 162W FRI AFTERNOON. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 47N 174E THU
NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB NEAR 54N 179W FRI NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 60 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S WIND 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

270 
FZAK62 PAFC 171525 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
625 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

AMENDED SYNOPSIS

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 57N 175E WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN. A WEATHER
FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN FRI. A 990
MB LOW NEAR 47N 174E THU NIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 975 MB NEAR 54N
179W FRI NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 60 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
29 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S WIND 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

044 
FZAK62 PAFC 180041
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-181500-
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE
NORTH AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. A 990 MB LOW NEAR 46N 173E THU NIGHT
WILL MOVE TO 51N 176E AT 972 MB FRI AFTERNOON AND TO 56N 173W AT 972
MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF 56N...S
WIND 25 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. S OF 56N...N WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING W
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22
FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT BUILDING TO 17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-181500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST THU NOV 17 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST TUE NOV 15 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
TODAY ABOVE THE GREAT LAND THE ATMOSPHERE FEATURES AN ELONGATED COLD
CORE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA DOWN THROUGH THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE CLOSED SIBERIAN HIGH FROM YESTERDAY IS IN THE
PROCESS OF SLIDING SOUTH AND MERGING WITH A BUILDING RIDGE AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE
BERING SEA/CHUKCHI PENINSULA RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN ALASKA
HAS CREATED A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WITH PARCEL TRAJECTORIES
COMING FROM THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THESE NORTH WINDS HAVE ENCOMPASSED MUCH
OF WESTERN ALASKA TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE...THE MAJOR FEATURE IS A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. BITTERLY COLD AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL ENHANCE THE COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE THOMPSON PASS AND COPPER RIVER
DELTA RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. A STOUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL AGREEMENT DOES NOT LAST VERY LONG FOR THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND EVEN LESS WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN. THOUGH THERE ARE SOME
EMERGING PATTERNS THAT CAN BE DISCERNED UNDERNEATH THE MODEL TO MODEL
DISCREPANCIES. FIRST...WHAT DO THE MODELS AGREE ON? THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MERGE WITH THE UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN ALASKA SINKING SOUTH. ALSO THERE IS AGREEMENT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING AHEAD UPPER LOW IN THE FAR WEST
BERING. THE FEATURE THAT SEEMS TO BE GIVING MODEL GUIDANCE TROUBLE IS
A DOUBLE/TRIPLE BARREL UPPER LOW COMPLEX ROTATING OVER THE SEA OF
OKHOTSK. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY IN ROUGHLY THE SAME PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE FLOW WILL MOVE NORTH BRINGING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE. WITHOUT ANY
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT TO SPEAK OF SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE NORTH WITH
THEIR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND A NEW TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE EAST. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES IS GOING TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CONSIDERABLY COOLER AND DRIER WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. DECREASING CLOUDS INTO THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AROUND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR THE MAT-SU AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CLEAR AND COLD IN AN OFFSHORE FLOW REGIME REMAINS
THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. AREAS NEAR THE COAST
WILL REMAIN WARMEST. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE BRISTOL BAY
AND ALASKA PENINSULA REGIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY STAGNANT
IN THE EAST...THAT IS NOT THE CASE OUT WEST. A COMPLEX UPPER LOW OVER
KAMCHATKA WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN TRIPLE POINT LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. EXPECT WAVES OF RAIN FIRST IN THE WEST THEN SPREADING EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PATTERN REMAINS UP IN THE AIR AS OUR CURRENT SETUP
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. LOOK FOR A VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW IN THE BERING THAT EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH A SOUTHWARD DROPPING
ARCTIC LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 131
         HIGH WIND WARNING 131 135
MARINE...STORM 130 132 150 175 176 185
         GALE 120 121 125 129 138 140 141 170 172 179
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 140 141 160 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL NOV 11