Gale Warning 789, NWS Anchorage, AK

031 
FZAK62 PAFC 070001
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-071500-
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 994 MB LOW NEAR 51N 174W WILL MOVE TO 53N 162W AT 999 MB MON
MORNING...THEN EJECT INTO THE GULF OF AK MON NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHERN BERING MON EVENING AND
WEAKEN. A LOW OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO 49N 167E AT 965
MB MON EVENING...THEN MOVE TO 60N 180 AT 953 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W OF 176W...SW WIND 25 KT. E OF 176W...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 70 KT. SEAS 39 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 38 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...W OF 176W...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 55 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 65 KT. SEAS 35 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-071500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...S WIND 65 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 35 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 36 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1255 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
ZONAL THAN IT HAS BEEN OF LATE WHICH MEANS FEATURES WILL MOVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS THIS MORNING WITH A
STRONG FRONT MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
WHILE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY. THE FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD SO EXPECT
HEAVIEST OF SNOW TO MOVE INLAND BY AFTERNOON. WARMER AIR WILL ALSO
MOVE IN WITH THE FRONT AND CAUSE PRECIP TO MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME
COASTAL LOCATIONS. RIDING OUT AHEAD OF THIS STORM IS PRODUCING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHERN BERING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE HANDLING OF
BERING SEA SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TO SOUTHCENTRAL THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. THERE HAVE BEEN RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES WITH REGARD
TO THE MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL - BOTH
IN STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL
DRAMATICALLY AFFECT SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THE KENAI TO ANCHORAGE
AND THE MAT-SU. LOOKING AT THE 12Z RUNS THE NAM IS AN OUTLIER ON
MONDAY BY KEEPING THE THIRD AND FINAL SHORT-WAVE SOUTH AND WEST OF
ANCHORAGE WHEN THE OTHER MODELS ALL MOVE IT THROUGH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WAVE IS MOST LIKELY OT PRODUCE THE
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IT IS FAR FROM A SURE
THING. WILL TREND TOWARD THAT IDEA WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. OUT
WEST THERE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN LOW POSITION WITH
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND A VERY POWERFUL SYSTEM PROGGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL BERING ON TUESDAY. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS BASED OFF
THE ECWMF AND THE MODEL SHOWS DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL
MAKE STICK WITH THAT SOLUTION FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE BERING SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING
AROUND HOMER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE ALASKA PENINSULA EXPECT
A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR KAMISHAK BAY.
HOWEVER...STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW WILL RAPIDLY TRACK THIS
LOW INLAND ACROSS THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT. THE NORTH GULF COAST
WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO RAIN...WHILE INLAND AREAS
REMAIN ALL SNOW. THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP BEHIND
THIS FRONT. THE BERING LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL BY LATE SUNDAY. SO AREAS OF SNOW WILL RE-DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT
WON'T BE THE END YET THOUGH...WITH ONE MORE UPPER WAVE TO SWING
THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE UPPER
TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE ADVECTION
OF ARCTIC AIR. THUS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVIER SNOWFALL
AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF THIS LAST TROUGH...SO WILL ONLY
INCREMENTALLY TREND TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS THE FRONT TRACK INLAND TONIGHT THE LOW CENTER
WILL MOVE ONSHORE SOUTH OF BETHEL BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO COASTAL AREAS. COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT IN AND TURN PRECIP
BACK TO MOSTLY SNOW. AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY
ARCTIC AIR WILL DIVE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW BRINGING STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS...SNOW SHOWERS...AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE COAST.
RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE SNOW
WILL HANG ON THANKS TO AN UPPER SHORT-WAVE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS THIS LOW EXITS ANOTHER WILL TRACK ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THE LOW WILL BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WHICH WILL KEEP STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...IF IT DOES TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WINDS COULD REACH
STORM FORCE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD MONDAY AS A
MAJOR LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL
CONSISTENCY THAT CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN SUPPORT OF A HURRICANE
FORCE LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA AND SOUTHWEST COAST...INCLUDING A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL
FLOODING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES...BUT EVERYONE SHOULD
STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE FOCUS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
MAJOR STORM CROSSING THE BERING AND HEADING UP TOWARD THE ARCTIC.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE. AS IT REACHES
THE ARCTIC MID WEEK ENERGY WILL DROP OUT OF ASIA INTO THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC AND LEAD TO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE FOCUS WILL
BE OUT WEST...SOUTHCENTRAL CAN EXPECT TO SEE IMPACTS FROM FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AS THEY TRACK FAR AWAY FROM THEIR PARENT LOW CENTERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130.
         GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 175 179 180
                        185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB NOV 11