Gale Warning 767, NWS Anchorage, AK

282 
FZAK52 PAFC 272307
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-281500-
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. A 973 MB LOW 290 NM NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA WILL
MOVE TO 75 NM NORTHWEST OF CHIGNIK FRI AFTERNOON AND TO 75 NM SOUTH
OF HOMER AT 978 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-281500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT E
OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-281500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-281500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 25 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-281500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND N. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND N. SEAS 7
FT EXCEPT 4 FT FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND N. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-281500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-281500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT EXCEPT 30 KT FROM SEGUAM ISLAND E. SEAS 16 FT
EXCEPT 12 FT FROM SEGUAM ISLAND E. 
.FRI...NW WIND 60 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW
50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT
BERING SIDE...25 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.FRI...NW WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-281500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-281500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-281500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU OCT 27 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 26 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER DAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE MAINLAND
REMAINS BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM EASTERN ALASKA INTO WESTERN CANADA WHILE A SHARPER TROUGH/UPPER
LOW SETUP EXTENDS FROM THE BERING STRAIT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AKPEN.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS A WEAKER ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A SHORT
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE FROM DAYS PREVIOUS HAS
FILLED AND MOVED INTO THE EASTERN GULF. A MORE COMPACT POTENT SURFACE
LOW LIES OVER BRISTOL BAY BRINGING RAIN TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. BETWEEN THE
TWO SURFACE SYSTEMS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWS FOR LIGHT WINDS
AND SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE PACKAGE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BOTH AT THE
UPPER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE. DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER BRISTOL BAY ARISE ONCE THAT FEATURE
PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN GULF BUT SHOULD MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE
FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE
IS A DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SET UP TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS EVENING. MULTIPLE MODELS
SUPPORT THIS FEATURE BRING AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF DILLINGHAM THROUGH SLEETMUTE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING
FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PROMINENT CONDITION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT KODIAK
ISLAND AND OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN FOR MAINLY COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS SPORADIC
SHOWERS ON THE KENAI PENINSULA. A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BRING
IN THE NEXT DISTURBANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE
LAST TWO.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE BRISTOL BAY LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY ZONES. THE SNOW BAND WILL LINGER
OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST DURING THE
DAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY LINGERING
IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY. MORE
RAIN IS IN STORE FOR THE AKPEN BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES TO THE AREA.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE NEXT FRONT IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF RAIN AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BE REPLACED BY A
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS. THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THE SYSTEM IS THE COLD
ADVECTION STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF STORM FORCE WILL PICK UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
OCCASIONALLY FLIRTING WITH WARNING LEVEL.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ALEUTIANS AS THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE BRINGING WAVES OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE MAINLAND WILL
SEE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE INTO THE GULF
BUFFERED BY QUIET PERIODS BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW 152 161.
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 170 171 172.
         STORM 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL OCT 11