Gale Warning 667, NWS Anchorage, AK

665 
FZAK62 PAFC 021146
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-030300-
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 MB LOW NEAR 54N 165E MOVES TO 56N 160W AND WEAKENS TO 990 MB
MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S OF 56N...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN. 
N OF 56N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S OF 56N...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO N TO W 
25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. N OF 56N...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 TO 20 KT IN 
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N OF 57N...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. S OF 57N...
VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
S OF 57N... VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 11 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-030300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2011

.TODAY...S OF 56N...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN. 
N OF 56N...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S OF 57N...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
N OF 57N...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S OF 57N...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
N OF 57N...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE FAIR. FORECAST TRENDS LOOK THE BEST USING
THE 12Z GFS/OOZ ECMWF OUT WEST AND THE 12Z ECMWF IN THE EAST. STRONG
WESTERLY JET OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WAVE MOVING NORTH ALONG A
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE DATA SPARSE NE PACIFIC WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

.UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH REGION ENCOMPASSES MAINLAND ALASKA
FROM THE GULF TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. WITHIN THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA. TO THE WEST...A RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. ITS ASSOCIATED JET IS CURRENTLY AT 150 KT AND
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 180 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY. THIS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE BERING THIS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS IS
THE HANDLING OF A WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE N/S BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
THE NE PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE
WAVE TO NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WITH A PRESSURE IN THE UPPER 980S TO
LOWER 990S SUN AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION
IN LIGHT OF STRONG STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND DYNAMICS. THE TIMING OF
THE DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AND LIKELY WILL
REQUIRE SOME TWEEKING AS TIMING OF WAVE IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION. FOR NOW EXPECT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT.
PRESSURE DRIVEN GAP FLOWS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL (ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN
ARM/EASTERN KENAI) WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND REACH THERE MAXIMUM ON
SUN...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE SUN. RAIN OVER SOME INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE COASTS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG SE WINDS ALOFT. RAIN WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO
INLAND AREAS SUN AS LOW MOVES THROUGH COOK INLET.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...GENERALLY NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE GULF
OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY THE EAST HALF OF THE
REGION. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE BERING
SEA BRINGS IN RAIN TO THE DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY SUN NIGHT.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...A STORM FORCE LOW CENTER OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE BERING SUN AND
MON. STRONG WINDS ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ARE SUPPORTED BY STRONG
SURFACE GRADIENTS AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WITH UPPER
JET...AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE WESTERLY
GALE/STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND
SUN. BY MON AFTERNOON...THE ONLY GALES EXPECTED WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR EAST ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM...THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES
OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...
MARINE...STORMS...120 175 176
         GALES...125 129 155 185 170 172
FIRE WEATHER...

RMC OCT 11