Gale Warning 632, NWS Anchorage, AK

689 
FZAK52 PAFC 111153
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120300-
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY EVENING. 
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING SEA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUN EVENING AND LINGERS
THROUGH MON. A LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO 400 NM NW OF SHEMYA AT 
987 MB MON MORNING. 

$$

PKZ150-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-120300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-120300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-120300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-120300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-120300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-120300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN SEP 11 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKDT SAT SEP 10 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALL MAJOR SYSTEMS AWAY FROM
THE GREAT STATE AS IT FLOWS WEST TO EAST OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND THEN DIVES SOUTH. IT CURVES AROUND A NEARLY CUT OFF LOW AROUND
45N AND THEN TURNS NORTHEAST AGAIN AND POINTS TOWARD THE PANHANDLE.

THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE JET IS LEAVING MOST OF THE STATE UNDER A
BROAD AND VERY DIFFUSE SURFACE PATTERN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHILE A 977 MB LOW ANCHORS THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. BETWEEN THE TWO IS A GALE FORCE FRONT
MARCHING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...LOSING STEAM
AS IT GOES DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ALL MAJOR FEATURES. THE TREND
IS FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE
THE FRONT MARCHES EAST. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL PREVAIL FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FORCED BACK NORTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY.

THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARISE MONDAY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE NAM
IS THE OUTLIER AS THE LOW OPENS UP INTO A TROF AND BECOMES ENTRENCHED
IN THE CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT. UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS THIS AFTERNOONS
PACKAGE WILL BE BASED OFF OF THE 12Z GFS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...CLOUD COVER AND WINDS ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT ENOUGH TO
PREVENT CLOUDS FROM FORMING AND HAMPERING WHAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE A
PERFECT FALL DAY. SHOWERS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE STRAY SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AS IT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY.

THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF INSTEAD
OF ALONG THE COAST IS ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO MOVE INLAND. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER
COOK INLET...WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING REPORTED ALL THE WAY UP TO THE
ALASKA RANGE. OVERNIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES INLAND AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE YUKON TERRITORY. THIS WILL CHANGE THE
ORIENTATION OF THE GRADIENT AND CUT OFF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.

A WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE
NORTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
BE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT MOST OF SUNDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES INLAND SUNDAY EVENING
LEADING TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EARLY WEEK FULL OF CLOUDS AND AT
LEAST THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SIMILAR TO THE EAST DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF VERY
NICE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AHEAD OF THAT...SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINAL CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE UPPER AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM.

MOISTURE SPREAD BACK OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUN PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MARCH EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES. THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY MEETS UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC CUT OFF
LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE NEW DIFFUSE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MEANDER UP THE SOUTHWEST COAST WHILE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND SHOWERS
FILL IN ACROSS THE BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...CONTINUED FLOOD ADV FOR 121
MARINE...GALES 150 180 170 172 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB SEP 11