Gale Warning 611, NWS Anchorage, AK

484 
FZAK52 PAFC 021136 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

CORRECTED ZONE 155 HEADLINE

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-030300-
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 90 NM EAST OF
KODIAK CITY BY LATE FRI NIGHT. A 1007 MB LOW 500 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 70 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND
DEEPEN TO 995 MB LATE FRI NIGHT...THEN TRACK TO AROUND 70 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KIPNUK AT 986 MB LATE SAT NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-030300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-030300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
 
$$

PKZ165-030300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-030300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-030300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-030300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-030300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 
FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-030300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING S 10 
KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. E 
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-030300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING
TO W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

JAM

782 
FZAK52 PAFC 022355
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL BERING TO THE
EASTERN BERING BY EARLY SAT MORNING. A 993 MB LOW DEVELOPS SAT
MORNING 150 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK AND INTENSIFIES TO 985 MB SUN
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES TO 50 NM SOUTH OF KIPNUK.

$$

PKZ150-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING
S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-031500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW BY LATE EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. 
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT THU SEP 1 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS AMPLIFYING AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS. WITH A NEUTRAL TILT
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT EDGE OF THE TROUGH IS MAKING VERY
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS TROUGH
IS BEGINNING TO INFLUENCE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. EXPECT THESE TROUGHS TO PHASE AND INITIATE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM....WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
AND BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER PRODUCER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
RIDGING AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS IS PROVIDING FOR DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY...BUT ALSO PROMOTED FOG FORMATION THIS
MORNING FOR THE MAT-SU AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. FOG HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED BUT LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND. AT THE SURFACE
THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE IN THE EASTERN BERING
WHICH IS WEAKENING AND ANOTHER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WHICH
IS INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WELL
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON DEPTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL TRACK JUST TO THE EAST
OF KODIAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY FILL IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A NEW SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN
THE BERING. AS A VERY STRONG JET COMES INTO PLAY FROM KAMCHATKA INTO
THE ALEUTIANS A NEW CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER BRISTOL
BAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE ARISE BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL MODELS. LARGER DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH HOW THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS HANDLED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN BOTH TIMING AND INTENSITY.
THE MAIN THEME HERE THOUGH IS A SIGNIFICANT LOW WORKING INTO THE
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OF
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF MAJOR STORM
TRACKING INTO THE GULF. THEREFORE...ONCE FOG AND STRATUS DISSIPATE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVER KODIAK ISLAND
AND THE GULF TONIGHT AS AN INTENSIFYING PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. A BARRIER JET WILL DEVELOP AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE
WILL ROTATE UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER AND OVER THE PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND REGION FRIDAY EVENING WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT ONSHORE. AS THIS OCCURS STRONGER WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
MOVE ONSHORE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
FROM CORDOVA TO WHITTIER TO PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.
THE BULK OF RAIN WILL FALL ALONG THE COAST...BUT AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE ROTATES WESTWARD OVER TOP OF THE LOW CENTER AND DISSIPATING
OCCLUSION MOVES ONSHORE EXPECT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPREAD INLAND.
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN...PERHAPS MORE
CHARACTERISTIC OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING MAINLY ALONG
THE COAST. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ACTUALLY PULLED WESTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES IN
FROM THE BERING SEA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHCENTRAL SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THE DETAILS OF THIS ARE STILL IN QUESTION.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PICK UP THE
DEVELOPING PACIFIC SYSTEM. WITH THAT DOWNSTREAM LOW BECOMING DOMINANT
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL DISSIPATE AND THE FRONT
WILL STALL AND WEAKEN OVER COASTAL SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THUS...THE BULK
OF RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF A KING SALMON TO SLEETMUTE LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THIS AREA OF RAIN DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL PUSH WESTWARD...BRINGING
A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES FRIDAY. THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN
FROM THE ARCTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE EASTERN
BERING LOW WILL HELP PRODUCE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING ALONG WITH WARM
ADVECTION WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG AND STRATUS FORMATION..ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF SIBERIA
WILL RAPIDLY FLATTEN THIS RIDGE OUT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY CROSSING THE BERING. AS THE SHORT-WAVE
CONTINUES TO DIG THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE A SIMILAR
TRACK TO THE CURRENT ONE ON SUNDAY. DECENT COLD ADVECTION ON THE
BACK SIDE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE DAY THROUGH 7 FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG-WAVE PATTERN. IT IS DIFFICULT FOR
MODELS TO RESOLVE INDIVIDUAL WAVES MOVING AROUND THIS LOW...BUT
BOTTOM LINE IS EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
ON THE BACK SIDE...FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS COLD
AIR DROPS DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC AND PRODUCE THE TYPICAL GUSTY WINDS
AND SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
         GALE WARNING 125 130 132 138 140.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ML/SEB SEP 11