Gale Warning 606, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 302319
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011500-
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 987 MB LOW 175 NM EAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 385 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SAND POINT SAT MORNING AT 992 MB AND DISSIPATE BY SUN MORNING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...INITIALIZATIONS LOOK REASONABLE. 500MB/SURFACE
PATTERN IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE GFS/ECMWF
CONTINUE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG
500 MB CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR KODIAK. THE
NAM JUST HAS AN OPEN 500 MB TROUGH AND WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN.

.UPPER LEVELS...
.500 MB...TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE GULF OF AK
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN FRI AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE YUKON FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF/SW AK
MOVES EAST AND BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND FRI
AND SAT. LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS MOVES TO THE SW GULF FRI EVENING AND
CUTS OFF. A SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR KODIAK AND LIFTS NORTH SUN
AS A STRONG LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND SETS UP
STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC.

.SURFACE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF DRIFTS EAST WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH GULF FRI AND SAT. A STRONG
CENTER OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AK PEN
FRI MORNING THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR SW GULF THRU SAT AFTERNOON. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT CLIPS SW AK AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THE
FRONT THEN MOVES THE NORTHERN AND EAST GULF FRI AND WEAKENS SAT.
EXPECT STRONG SE/EAST WINDS AHEAD/WITH FRONT OVER GULF WATERS WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE RAIN CONFINED TO GULF COASTAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE NE BERING SEA FRI AND BRINGS DRYING CONDITIONS TO SW
AK THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR BRISTOL BAY WHICH CONTINUES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE GULF FRONTAL TROUGH. A STRONG LOW CENTER MOVES TO
THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRI NIGHT AND THEN TO THE CENTRAL BERING SUN
AFTERNOON. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EAST...UNDER A STRONG
UPPER JET...TO THE EAST ALEUTIANS SAT NIGHT AND THE WESTERN AK
PEN/PRIBILOFS SUN AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SHOWERS/RAIN AND SOME MIX OF SNOW(HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. PATCHY
FOG AND STRATUS WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH MAY FORM
OVER COOK INLET LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTH WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTS FRI AND SAT...WITH SOME SHOWERS
INLAND. EXPECT THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF FRI MORNING WILL
SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF FRI EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

.SW ALASKA...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS BRISTOL BAY/COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BACK AROUND TO THE E AND NE OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES
SOUTH OF THE AK PEN. GENERALLY BRISK NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. RAIN OR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
GIVE WAY TO DRYING FRI AND SAT. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT
NEAR BRISTOL BAY COULD HOLD IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO SAT.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...WEST TO NW GALES WITH STORM GUSTS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AS THE LOW HEADS SOUTH
OF THE AK PEN. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS
FRI AFTERNOON. SE GALES WILL SPREAD TO WESTERN PORTIONS FRI NIGHT AND
TO CENTRAL SECTIONS SAT. RAIN IN THE EASTERN BERING THIS EVENING WILL
BE REPLACED BY SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT/FRI. RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH
NEXT FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 155 165 170 171 172 175 179 411 412 413 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC SEP 11