Gale Warning 597, NWS Anchorage, AK

564 
FZAK62 PAFC 220246 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

AMENDED ZONE 414

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221500-
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 997 MB LOW NEAR 54N 177W WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 52N 174W WED EVENING.
A 982 MB LOW NEAR JAPAN WILL MOVE TO NEAR 51N 177E AT 994 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-221500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

573 
FZAK62 PAFC 221054
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-230300-
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW NEAR 50N 158E THU EVENING MOVES TO 52N 176W FRI
NIGHT AT 996 MB AND THEN NEAR 50N 165W AT 991 MB SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ411-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
$$

PKZ412-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-230300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKDT THU SEP 22 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 21 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHORT TERM...A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND AK PERSISTS INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN THE BERING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW GIVES WAY TO NORTH
PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
BRISTOL BAY IS THE MAIN DRIVER OF CURRENT WEATHER.  THIS SYSTEM
PERSISTS IN SOME FORM THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A SYSTEM IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MOVES ONSHORE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BERING TODAY MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE
GENERALLY OUTLOOK IS FOR CONTINUED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FREEZING LEVELS ON THE ORDER OF 5000 FT IN SOUTHCENTRAL AND 3500 FT
IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER MOST
OF THE REGION.  GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN THE
BERING PERSISTENT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ENTERS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS FRI.  MODELS INDICATING THAT THIS SYSTEM IS REMNANTS OF
TYPHOON ROKE CURRENTLY ON THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU.  STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
TRANSPORT THIS SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN AL OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS.
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INTO THE
985-990 RANGE BY FRI.  CURRENT MODEL TRACK TAKES IT ACROSS AL CHAIN
AND THEN NEAR 50N 155W SAT EVENING WITH SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD. CURRENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE A NORTHEAST TRACK
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE MON AND TUE BUT TO EARLY TO GLEAM DETAILS.

LOOKS AS IF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE
BACK SIDE...THAT IS NORTHERLIES.  RAINFALL COULD OF COURSE BE
POTENTIALLY HEAVY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AT TIMES BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
AND SEE LATER MODEL SOLUTIONS.  SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY
SOMEWHAT NEGATE HEAVY RAIN IN TERMS OF PROLONGED RAINFALL TOTALS AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE AL CHAIN PRETTY RAPIDLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP SEP 11