Gale Warning 559, NWS Anchorage, AK

698 
FZAK51 PAFC 201146
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF HOMER WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE
SAT NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET. A 987 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND
150 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND EARLY SUN MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH MON.
$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 3 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT AUG 20 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT FRI AUG 19 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM AS WELL AS GFS AND EC IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MAIN PATTERN IS A
PARENT LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TODAY OVER
KODIAK ISLAND.  THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND
THIS EVENING AND INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE IN
KAMISHAK BAY. THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SAT
EVENING WHERE IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES ON SUN.  FORECASTERS TENDING TO
LEAN TOWARDS NAM SOLUTION FOR NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO ITS HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF IS GENERATING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN FROM SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA OVER TO ICY BAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER THE GULF  WILL
HELP TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE ONSHORE THROUGH FRI EVENING. SSMI
IMAGERY INDICATES COPIOUS MOISTURE OVER THE GULF HOWEVER THE
PROGRESSIVE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS PATTERN WILL ALLEVIATE ANY
SERIOUS FLOODING IN ANCHORAGE AOR.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION..LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MAY
GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT OTHERWISE MINIMAL IMPACT.

SOUTHWEST...CONTINUED CLOUDY WITH RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN
TURNING TO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. AREAS OF FOG ALONG
THE COAST SAT. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON SAT WITH COOLER
AIR MOVING IN MON MORNING FROM THE NORTHERN BERING.

SOUTHCENTRAL...RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION.  RAIN HEAVY
ALONG THE COAST AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING WITH CURRENT MODEL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOW RIVER LEVELS.
MAIN AREA OF RAIN MOVES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
SAT MORNING BUT MODERATE AMOUNTS AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
RESIDUAL LOW IN THE GULF SLOWLY DISSIPATES TUE AND WED...WOULD EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ZONES. MODELS INDICATING A TROUGH FROM
SIBERIA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN BERING TUE MORNING BRINGING A FRONT
AND CHANCE OF RAIN TO WESTERN ZONES AND EASTERN HALF OF BERING TUE
EVENING THROUGH WED. NEXT LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES THROUGH
WED EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 125 129
FIRE WEATHER...DONE FOR SEASON

JMP AUG 11