Gale Warning 551, NWS Anchorage, AK

513 
FZAK51 PAFC 151912 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1110 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

UPDATED ZONES 121 AND 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160300-
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 998 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL
MOVE TO 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 993 MB THIS EVENING
THEN WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-160300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
835 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 15 KT LATE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SE OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...N 
WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT 
SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-160300-
RESURRECTION BAY
1110 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT THIS MORNING. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. 
WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-160300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG IN THE 
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
IN THE MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-160300-
PASSAGE CANAL
1110 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER.  SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING.
WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING
TO 1 FOOT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-160300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-160300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-160300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-160300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. PATCHY MORNING FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-160300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

717 
FZAK51 PAFC 152351
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161500-
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 993 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL WEAKEN 
AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA ON TUE.

$$

PKZ120-161500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SE OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...N WIND
35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO
5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-161500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-161500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-161500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-161500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-161500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-161500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-161500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-161500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT BY MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

601 
FZAK51 PAFC 161157
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET... A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY.
WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...WEST OF CAPE CLEARE....W WIND 15 KT. CAPE CLEARE EAST...SE
WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS BECOMING S 10 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. W TO N WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT OUT OF
BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. WINDS
DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT.

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FOOT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER TODAY CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS IN ITS
WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW SPINS JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURE THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS MOST
OF ALASKA CENTERED FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TO THE GULF OF ALASKA
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW ROTATES JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING LIES BETWEEN THE TWO
SURFACE LOWS AROUND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. THE GULF OF ALASKA LOW WILL ROTATE ONSHORE ALONG THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE WHILE A WEAKER DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE ALASKA
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE IN
THE HOW ENERGY SPINNING OFF A SHORTWAVE NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
THE ONE FEATURE THE MODELS CAN AGREE ON FOR THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD
IS A FASTER ZONAL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS WELL AS
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION BY LATE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FOR THE MORNING
FOR MOST OF THE MAINLAND WHILE RAIN SHOWERS WILL STAY NUMEROUS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT. DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SCATTERED WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHILE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY APPEAR IN
COASTAL REGIONS TODAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE BACK IN TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
REGIONS. THE COLD UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL
PROMOTE INSTABILITY LEADING TO THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL EXIST IN THE MARINE ZONES
NORTH OF THE CHAIN AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED OVER
THE AREA. THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ON
TUESDAY SPREADING SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SPIN OFF THE CLOSED LOW OVER
KAMCHATKA MID WEEK AND DEVELOP A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST
NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. TIMING IS NOT CERTAIN AS OF YET BUT
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE BERING. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
TRACK THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...NONE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL AUG 11