Gale Warning 529, NWS Anchorage, AK

563 
FZAK61 PAFC 252329
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261500-
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 984 MB LOW NEAR 56N 148W WILL MOVE TO 57N 147W FRI AFTERNOON 
AT 996 MB. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS 
EARLY SAT MORNING. A 998 MB LOW WILL BE NEAR 56N 151W SAT AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-261500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT THU AUG 25 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

946 
FZAK61 PAFC 261208
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270300-
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 57N 147W WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB NEAR 58N 148W FRI
EVENING AND DISSIPATE LATE FRI NIGHT NEAR 59N 151W. A 992 MB LOW NEAR
52N 160W LATE FRI NIGHT WILL WEAKEN TO 1006 MB NEAR 54N 144W LATE SAT
NIGHT.
$$

PKZ351-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 TO 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-270300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO
11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

623 
FZAK61 PAFC 262302
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271500-
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR 58N 145W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA
SAT MORNING. A 994 MB LOW NEAR 55N 155W FRI NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 57N
150W AT 998 MB SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 57N 140W AT 1008 MB SUN
AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ351-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-271500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED AUG 24 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC SCALE INITIALIZATIONS WERE
REASONABLE. FORECAST SOLUTIONS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AND IN LINE WITH CURRENT THINKING. STRONG DYNAMICS
(DIGGING COLD UPPER TROUGH AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET CORE)
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER APPROACHING THE GULF OF AK
WILL CAUSE THE CENTER TO DEEPEN AND HOLD TOGETHER A LITTLE LONGER
THAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.500MB...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. THE LOW CENTER NEAR ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND CONTINUES TO ACT AS THE FULCRUM FOR WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND MAINLAND. A STRONG TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM ST. LAWRENCE CENTER TO ALONG 165W...SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS IS CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTH. THE MORNING SOUNDING AT SAINT
PAUL SHOWED SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHARPEN AND ROTATE EAST A CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR
THE BASE AT 50N 155W BY THIS EVENING. THIS CENTER INTENSIFIES AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THU THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES
NEARLY CUT-OFF AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
OVER THE MAINLAND THU NIGHT. YET ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING LOW WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR UNALASKA KICKS THE WEAKENING
GULF CUT-OFF NORTH AS IT HEADS NE TO TAKE ITS PLACE. RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/EAST ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON AS WELL AS A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/WEST ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IS STARTING TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER INTO TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE GULF AND TROUGH OVER
WESTERN ALASKA IS PRODUCING LOCALLY BRISK GAP WINDS ACROSS TURNAGAIN
ARM. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND CAUSE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF GAP FLOWS BEFORE RELAXING SOME
LATER THU. A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NE PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THU MORNING WITH A PRESSURE IN THE UPPER 970S
TO LOWER 980S. THIS CENTER THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHERN GULF FRI EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE
NORTH GULF COAST THU NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND FRI.
EXPECT GALES IN ADVANCE OF FRONT AND WITH TRAILING LOW CENTER. THE
BRUNT OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH GULF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
INLAND THRU THU NIGHT.

SOUTHWEST AND BERING SEA...A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN DELTA IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST AND WILL STALL OVER EASTERN BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN THRU THU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT OVER THE DELTA
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH WARMING ALOFT
THU NIGHT. A LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MOVES EAST AND STALLS NW
OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THU NIGHT...THEN WEAKENS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL LIKELY CLIP COASTAL AREAS OF THE DELTA THU NIGHT...BUT THE
ONSET OF SE FLOW ALOFT WILL SNOW PUSH THE RAIN BACK NW. A DEVELOPING
LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING MOVES SOUTH OF
UNALASKA FRI MORNING WITH A PRESSURE IN THE 980S. THE LOW THEN
WEAKENS AS A TRIPLE POINT FEATURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
IT ELONGATES EASTWARD FRI EVENING. THE TRIPLE POINT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF SAT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...NO HUGE CHANGES TO THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER
PATTERNS OVER THE COMING WEEK. GENERAL FLOW TO REMAIN HIGHLY
PROGRESSIVE...MEANING MOST AREAS WILL SEE A DAY OR TWO OF
CLOUDS/RAIN/WIND FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WITH SOME SUN
POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE MOST INLAND LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE STORM TRACK STAYS SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH IN THE GULF. OUT
WEST...THE ALEUTIANS WILL CATCH THE GLANCING BLOWS OF THE LOWS
PASSING BY...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MAY START TO DRY OUT A BIT
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 170 172 175 351 352 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC AUG 11