Gale Warning 485, NWS Anchorage, AK

403 
FZAK62 PAFC 082258
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-091500-
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS
IT WEAKENS TO 1000 MB BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 994 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
MOVES TO NEAR 49N 179E SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-091500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE
SHORT TERM. THE LARGE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE BERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE EASTERN GULF LOW WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND
BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH BREAKING OFF OF THE BERING SEA LOW AND
SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BEHIND IT WORKING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
SOME MODEL SPREAD EXISTS WITH AN UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO THE BEAUFORT
SEA BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AS WELL AS THE
POSITION OF THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD LIE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD CLOSED AND STACKED CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE
BERING AS A WHOLE WITH MOST OF ITS SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS BEING
WAVES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR AND ALASKAN PENINSULA. IN
THE EASTERN GULF A WEAKER STACKED LOW IS HELPING TO ROTATE WAVES INTO
THE EASTERN AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
GULF EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF HAS TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN THE FORM OF A MARINE LAYER THAT HAS ADVECTED INTO COASTAL REGIONS.
SEVERAL TROUGHS EMBEDDED AROUND THE LARGE SCALE BERING CIRCULATION
ARE PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF BACK THROUGH THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THE SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH LIES JUST OVER AND NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE MARINE LAYER IS
QUICKLY MIXING OUT IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SPREAD OF OVERHEAD CIRRUS MITIGATE THE
EFFECTS THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN LATER THIS EVENING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLEARING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONE HAS PROMOTED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN EASTERLY WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE ZONE. THE RAIN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE WITH THE RESPONSIBLE DISTURBANCE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BERING SEA
LOW CONTINUES TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND. AS THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR THE
COASTAL AREAS WILL RECEIVE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL STICK AROUND
THE AREA. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL AGAIN BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH OUT THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE BERING WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AND DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND IT
FOR THE COMING DAYS. MOST NOTABLY A POTENT DISTURBANCE SPINNING UP
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING RAIN
FIRST TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN THEN SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS WHAT IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD
WITH LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING BRINGING
DISTURBANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
THE GULF. MOST PROMINENT FEATURES ARE A STRONG EMBEDDED TROUGH MOVING
UP THE ALEUTIANS TOWARD THE MAINLAND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AN UPPER
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEAST ALASKA THOUGH SOME VARIABILITY
EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES AT THIS POINT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 160 165 170 172 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL JUL 11