Gale Warning 469, NWS Anchorage, AK

309 
FZAK52 PAFC 202257
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211500-
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY WED AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA 
WILL MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK BY WED AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO
1006 MB. 

$$

PKZ150-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-211500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-211500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-211500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-211500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-211500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-211500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-211500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-211500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE 10 KT 
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-211500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT MON JUN 20 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH TROUGHS CENTERED ALONG
SOUTHWEST ALASKA DOWN TO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL BERING SEA. RIDGING IS ALSO NOTED FROM NORTHERN CANADA
WESTWARD INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. A WEAK LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE
BOTTOM OF THE FIRST TROUGH NOTED ABOVE WHILE ENERGY ON THE
DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE TROUGH ROTATES NORTH AND WEST TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
REGION UNDER THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE FAR EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN IS STRONGER THAN OTHER
FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF STRATIFORM
RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWESTERN COPPER BASIN (ALONG THE DENALI
HIGHWAY) SO EXPECT COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND DYNAMIC LIFT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVES TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY. THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...SO EVEN WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IN THAT REGION AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE AND A FEW SUN
BREAKS COULD BE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.

OUT WEST...EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIANS AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE NAM SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER...MOST NOTABLY
IN THE UPPER LEVELS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
IN BRINGING UPPER LOW FROM BERING STRAIT DOWN TO BRISTOL BAY WHILE
OTHER SOLUTIONS ONLY TRACK THIS LOW TO A POSITION OFF THE THE YUKON
AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST. THIS ALSO AFFECTS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVING
IN FROM THE EAST AS THE NAM TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WILL DISREGARD THIS SOLUTION
UNLESS BEGIN TO SEE A SIMILAR TREND IN OTHER MODELS IN UPCOMING RUNS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO STEADY RAIN AND
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVES MOVES THROUGH. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK...ALTHOUGH UPPER
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD IN BETWEEN UPPER LOWS CENTERS OFF THE
WEST COAST AND NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. AT THIS POINT IN TIME IT
IS HARD TO RESOLVE SPECIFIC FEATURES WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH
WHICH MAY AFFECT THE REGION BEYOND THIS INITIAL SET OF SHORT-WAVES.
BOTTOM LINE IS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PACIFIC LOW WHICH
TRACKS UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS LOW WILL INITIALLY
BE SLOWED BY THE RIDGE...BUT WILL MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST MID WEEK. STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REST OF THE BERING SEA REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST MID WEEK WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE IN THE WEEK AND ALLOW RIDGE OVER INTERIOR
ALASKA TO BUILD BACK SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER THAN GFS WITH THIS RIDGE. AS A RESULT THE
GFS DEPICTS ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL LATE IN
THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS STEADY WITHE THE RIDGE. IN ANY CASE
EXPECT AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO OF SOME SUNSHINE AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
BEFORE ANYTHING ELSE MOVES BACK IN.

THE STORM TRACK OUT WEST WILL INITIALLY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. HOWEVER...GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEK WHICH COULD RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM ENTERING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB JUN 11