Gale Warning 462, NWS Anchorage, AK

616 
FZAK52 PAFC 071146
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080300-
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1003 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL WEAKEN TO 1015 MB
AS IT DRIFTS TO 85 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON. A 980 MB
LOW 450 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE MORNING WILL WEAKEN TO 986 MB AS 
IT MOVES TO 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA WED AFTERNOON. THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TONIGHT AND WED...AND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WED NIGHT.


$$

PKZ150-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ155-080300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ160-080300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-080300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-080300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ170-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-080300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-080300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT
INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-080300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-080300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-080300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKDT MON JUN 6 2011

.ANALYSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TODAY
AS A LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW FROM THE WEEKEND IS STILL SLOWLY FILLING OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA WHILE A THIRD LOW WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS IS DEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF A TROF WITH THE SUPPORT OF A
140 KT JET.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM
ALTHOUGH SOME INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS OBVIOUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE. THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW A
CONSISTENT INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE MOISTURE PLUME APPEARS TO BE WELL AHEAD OF WHERE IT SHOULD BE
ACCORDING TO THE MODELS...SO WE ARE HAVING TO ADJUST FOR THE TIMING
ISSUES AS RAIN SPREADS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH RAPIDLY TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN TO THE BRISTOL
BAY ZONE AND THEN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. RAIN HAS ALREADY BEGUN ON
KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL BE FILLING IN OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY FALL APART OVERNIGHT...SO
RAIN IN ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY IS NOT LIKELY.
STILL...DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT AN ODD SHOWER GIVEN THE MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT.

FURTHER EAST OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE. RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COULD
LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AS WINDS LOOK TO BECOME GUSTY DUE TO A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THIS
SCENARIO...DESPITE THE SLIGHT MODEL TIMING ISSUES...SO WE WILL BE
UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A WARNING WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THE LOW THAT MOVES TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA LOSES ITS MOMENTUM AND
STALLS JUST SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK ISLAND. IT WILL MEANDER IN THIS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY FILLS. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
MOVE INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIER AIR BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...BRINGING THE
REGION ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AGAIN...THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COUPLED WITH THE
RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...MOST OF THE BERING WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS ARE
BRINGING PLACES LIKE THE PRIBILOFS REDUCED VISIBILITY TO A MILE OR
LESS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING AND MAKE IT
TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BY THEN...THE LOW
WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 138 150 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

AB JUN 11