Gale Warning 447, NWS Anchorage, AK

541 
FZAK62 PAFC 162321
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR 52N 174W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WESTERN 
BERING SEA SAT. 

$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT THU JUN 16 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT WED JUN 15 2011

.ANALYSIS...LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MOST OF THE
STATE WITH SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LOWS SPINNING IN THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IS A POTENT WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND THROUGHOUT
SOUTHCENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A SECOND WAVE LOCATED NEAR
FAIRBANKS IS PRODUCING WIDE SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SEVERAL
WEAKER LOWS ARE SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ON ALL OF THE MAJOR FEATURES AND ARE
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AS WELL AS EACH OTHER. VERY MINOR
CHANGES WILL BE MADE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS WEATHER...WIDESPREAD RAIN
TAPERED OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...WE COULD SEE SHOWERS REDEVELOP AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THANKS TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT. AS
THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WILL GRADUALLY
SEE A DRYING TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEWS FEW DAYS AS COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THE
RESULT WILL BE HIGH LAPSE RATES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT COULD ALSO LEAD TO
SMALL HAIL...SOMETHING ELSE TO WATCH OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY BUILDING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA LEADING TO MORE
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. MUCH FEWER SHOWERS IN THE REGION EXPECTED OVER
THE NEW FEW DAYS WITH SOME SHALLOW FOG A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND EFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS TOUGH FURTHER INLAND.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT APPROACHES
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. THE FRONT LOSES STEAM SO ONLY EXPECTING
SMALL CRAFT WINDS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BY THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...170 171 172
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JUN 11