Gale Warning 431, NWS Anchorage, AK

146 
FZAK52 PAFC 261200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270300-
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTH OF CASTLE CAPE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE BY FRI MORNING. A 1006 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
90 NM EAST OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI MORNING AND MOVE TO 150 NM WEST OF
DUTCH HARBOR FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-270300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-270300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-270300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-270300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT PACIFIC SIDE...8 FT BERING SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-270300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-270300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-270300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-270300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-270300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT THU MAY 26 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED MAY 25 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS. PREFERRED NAM THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM FOR ITS GREATER DETAIL. WENT WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN THE
MID AND LONG RANGE.

.SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST WEAKENS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BUT THEN
REBUILDS ON FRIDAY. WARM AND DRY FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MAXTS IN THE 60S AND
70S MOST INLAND AREAS. NEVERTHELESS FIRE WEATHER SHOULD NOT BE A
CONCERN DUE TO MINIMAL WINDS OUTSIDE COASTAL AREAS.  AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

A LARGE 985 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA IS
PRESENTLY SPREADING RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS KODIAK
ISLAND...SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND MOST OF THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS IN AN ARC FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE PRIBILOFS AND THEN ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST
AND ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF
KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATE BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT GRADAULLY BREAKS DOWN. RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE WILL
LINGER ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE IN
ALL AREAS EXCEPT VICNITY KODIAK ISLAND...AND SHOULD DROP THERE AS
WELL BY EVENING.

.UPPER LEVELS AND LONG TERM FORECAST...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT BEGINS TO SLOWLY RECEDE BACK INTO WESTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY.
CLOUDIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD EASTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA ON SATURDAY SHOULD USHER IN SUNNIER AND WARMER
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE LARGE UPPER LOW CENTER PRESENTLY POSITIONED JUST SOUTH FO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TWO
SEPERATE UPPER LOW CENTERS...ONE IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER
NEAR SHEMYA...WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURES ON THE MAP. A NEW SURFACE
LOW OVER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ON SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE BUT MODELS UNCERTAIN REGARDING ITS
SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 138 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB MAY 11