Gale Warning 406, NWS Anchorage, AK

215 
FZAK52 PAFC 101134
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110300-
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA THROUGH WED NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 983
MB LOW 750 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA THIS MORNING...WHICH MOVES TO 340
NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TONIGHT AT 977 MB...AND THEN TO 210 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 982 MB WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 
TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-110300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-110300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-110300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-110300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING 
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
UNALASKA E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-110300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-110300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-110300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-110300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-110300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON MAY 9 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE LOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AND EASTERN AK PENINSULA AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF ARE ON TRACK MOVING SOUTHEAST. A SECOND
LOW SOUTH OF THE MAIN CENTER IS PICKED UP IN THE MODELS AS WELL AS IS
A FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT LOW EAST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO DOING WELL WITH RESPECT TO THE SYSTEM NEAR THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ASTERN AK PENINSULA IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. THIS IS A GOOD COLD CORE LOW OVER RELATIVELY COOL LOW
LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CONVECTIVE AS EVIDENT IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MILDLY UNSTABLE
AIR IS ALSO IN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST SUPPORTING FREQUENT SHOWERS
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE INFLUX
OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF
THE CONSOLIDATED LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE IS THE MOST ACTIVE WITH RESPECT
TO SHOWERY ACTIVITY AND SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXTENDING BACK TO THE WEST
TO THE DUTCH HARBOR AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. FURTHER INLAND THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH FLOW IS DRYING THE REGION AND CLEARING THE CLOUDS
OUT OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THEN STALL OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND FAR WESTERN ALASKA MIDWEEK.

THE WELL DEFINED FRONT NOW AFFECTING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS
PRODUCING SUB GALE FORCE WIND. THE WIND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATER THIS EVENING. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW
AS IT PUSHES AGAINST THE RIDGE THROUGH TUE MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
A AS THE LOW IN THE GULF INTENSIFIES TONIGHT IN THE GULF THE NORTH
WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG
THE GULF COAST. COUPLED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERLY JET STREAK ON
TUESDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA. THE DRYER AIRMASS COUPLED WITH THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL BRING UP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION TUE
AND WED.

AS THE LOW IN THE GULF TRACKS SOUTHEAST IT WILL RESULT IN CUTTING OFF
THE MOIST EAST FEED ALONG THE COAST PUTTING AN END TO THE SHOWERS BY
TUE.

OVERALL MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK AFTER
THIS CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
BRISTOL BAY ZONE.EXPECT A GENERAL CLEARING AND WARMING TREND AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE BERING MOVES TO THE BERING COAST THROUGH WED MORNING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING ON THE
UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AK PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL ROTATE DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS WELL AS PERIODS OF
RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL
WEAKEN AND FLATTEN TO THE SOUTH AS A LARGE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE BERING SETS UP COOL MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING AND FLOOD WATCH...152
MARINE...GALES...150 170 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM MAY 11