Gale Warning 400, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Mar 31, 2011, 4:00 PM AKDT (00:00 UTC)

Expired

Apr 1, 2011, 7:00 AM AKDT

In force

15 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 312357
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011500-
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE THU
NIGHT. A 982 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO 966 MB AS IT MOVES 
TO 130 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-011500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-011500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-011500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-011500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-011500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-011500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-011500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-011500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-011500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 31, 1:40 PM AKDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE ARE NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
ASIA TO WESTERN CANADA. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SNOW
TO ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR ALSO
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WHICH IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SOUTHCENTRAL TROUGH WHICH WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT.

THE NEXT TROUGH OF INTEREST IS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG FURTHER WEST THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD ALASKA
AND COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW EVENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS A DEVELOPING
LOW WILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ALASKA REGION THIS WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT SO
WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
ALSO PERSIST IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AS THE WEAK LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO INTERIOR ALASKA WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRAIDENT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT. STILL...WITH MELTING
SNOW AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER
TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE ANALYSIS SECTION ABOVE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LIKELY RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. A MAJOR PACIFIC STORM WILL
FOLLOW...BUT THE ACTUAL LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY A STRONG
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL SO THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE DRYING SO WOULD EXPECT THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN UPSLOPE AREAS FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY DURING THE
SATURDAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY ZONES WILL STAY ALL SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN
WHETHER ENOUGH SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR EXPECTED
WEATHER WITH THE MAJOR PACIFIC LOW THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES TO
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL VERTICAL MOTION AND FEEDING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE OCCLUDED FRONT. IT IS TOO SOON
TO ISSUE ANYTHING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SATURDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE EASTERN BERING TO SOUTHERN MAINLAND REGION.
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC AMPLIFIES
AND BENDS THE SUBTROPICAL JET NORTHWARD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ULTIMATE DESTINATION OF THIS
LOW...HOWEVER AS PER THE HPC ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF BRINGING
THIS LOW TO WESTERN ALASKA. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS MEAN TROUGH SETS UP OVER BERING SEA
WITH A STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN BERING AND MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 165 170 171 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1045 AM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

AKZ101-111-311915-

...STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED IN ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...

STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED IN ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHICH WILL
HELP MELT SNOW ALONG MANY OF THE LOCAL ROADWAYS. SKIES WILL THEN
GRADUALLY CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2011Every gale warning in 2011

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.