Gale Warning 328, NWS Anchorage, AK

181 
FZAK52 PAFC 012349
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021500-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 976 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL STRENGTHEN TO 968 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY SAT AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL
THEN TRACK TO 260 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SUN AFTERNOON AT 973 MB. A 980
MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTH OF ATTU SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-021500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-021500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.  
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-021500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO NW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. EXCEPT FROM PORT MOLLER E...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-021500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO NE 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-021500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-021500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. EXCEPT N WIND 30 KT ATKA WESTWARD. SEAS 11
FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-021500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-021500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E WIND 15 KT EAST OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND IN THE EVENING. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-021500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 1 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
140 PM AKDT THU MAR 31 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE ARE NUMEROUS LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
ASIA TO WESTERN CANADA. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT SNOW
TO ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY THIS MORNING IS WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR ALSO
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
WHICH IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE
IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE SOUTHCENTRAL TROUGH WHICH WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT.

THE NEXT TROUGH OF INTEREST IS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS. AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG FURTHER WEST THE EAST
SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD ALASKA
AND COULD LEAD TO A LIGHT SNOW EVENT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS A DEVELOPING
LOW WILL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ALASKA REGION THIS WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING
OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA FRIDAY NIGHT SO
WILL INCREASE POPS AND MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
ALSO PERSIST IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AS THE WEAK LOW
WEAKENS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL
BUILD INTO INTERIOR ALASKA WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A TIGHT ENOUGH
GRAIDENT TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG TONIGHT. STILL...WITH MELTING
SNOW AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON AND REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...EXPECT LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE UPPER
TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE ANALYSIS SECTION ABOVE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING LIKELY RESULTING IN
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY. A MAJOR PACIFIC STORM WILL
FOLLOW...BUT THE ACTUAL LOW CENTER WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE IMPACTED BY A STRONG
OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL SO THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE GULF COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN A POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE DRYING SO WOULD EXPECT THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN UPSLOPE AREAS FROM DILLINGHAM
NORTH AND WEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO BRISTOL BAY DURING THE
SATURDAY PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT UP TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY ZONES WILL STAY ALL SNOW. THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN
WHETHER ENOUGH SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL TO CAUSE PROBLEMS.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK FOR EXPECTED
WEATHER WITH THE MAJOR PACIFIC LOW THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES TO
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL VERTICAL MOTION AND FEEDING ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE SYSTEM HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE OCCLUDED FRONT. IT IS TOO SOON
TO ISSUE ANYTHING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE STRONG LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
SATURDAY WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE EASTERN BERING TO SOUTHERN MAINLAND REGION.
THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PACIFIC AMPLIFIES
AND BENDS THE SUBTROPICAL JET NORTHWARD. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVE QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ULTIMATE DESTINATION OF THIS
LOW...HOWEVER AS PER THE HPC ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF BRINGING
THIS LOW TO WESTERN ALASKA. LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS MEAN TROUGH SETS UP OVER BERING SEA
WITH A STORM TRACK FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
EASTERN BERING AND MAINLAND ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...150 155 165 170 171 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB MAR 11