Gale Warning 391, NWS Anchorage, AK

963 
FZAK62 PAFC 182309
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-191500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 57N 177W MOVES MOVES SOUTH AND DISSIPATES THURSDAY.
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 47N 178E MOVES TO 52N 162W AND WEAKENS TO 987 MB
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ411-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-191500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT WED MAY 18 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKDT TUE MAY 17 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING MAJOR FEATURES. ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL...WE WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION. AS
WE PROGRESS TO THE LONG TERM THE MODELS LOSE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH
OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN PUSHING US TO RELY PRIMARILY ON HPC
GUIDANCE.

.UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING REMAINS AS
THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR THE REGION WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOWS. OF
THESE THE WEAKENING LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA STAYS ON ITS SLOW
TRACK INTO THE EASTERN BERING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE. A RECENTLY
FORMED LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING TRACKS EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
BERING AND AS THE JET RESIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS LOW
ALONG WITH OTHERS THAT FORM IN THE BERING WILL BE WEAK. ON THE
OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS A STRONG LOW IS FORMING THAT WILL RIDE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW THAT WAS SOUTH OF ADAK YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED
ITS PROGRESSION EAST AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH OF KODIAK WED. AS
FOR MAINLAND ALASKA THE DOMINANT FEATURE IS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDING OVER THE STATE FROM NORTHERN CANADA
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

.AT THE SURFACE...THE MULTIPLE LOWS THAT ARE MOVING ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS ARE BRINGING FRONTS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SUCCESSION TO
THE ISLANDS WITH THE NEW STRONG LOW TO THE SOUTH OF SHEMYA BEING THE
MAIN CONTRIBUTOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE ALEUTIANS REMNANTS OF THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA CONTINUES
TO BRING MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE GULF AND GULF
COAST. AHEAD OF THAT FLOW IN THE EASTERN AREA A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STILL FINDS ITS HOME OVER THE GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...FOR THE EAST...STAYING CONSISTENT WITH THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS EASTERLY FLOW FOR KODIAK BRINGS THEM RAIN. ALSO
STICKING TO THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS DIURNAL PATTERNS
WILL CAUSE A THERMAL TROUGH TO SETUP OVER THE INTERIOR AND THIS
COMBINED WITH RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST BRINGS GAPS WINDS TO AREAS
AROUND THE SOUTHCENTRAL.

.FOR THE WEST...SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO SEE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AND RAIN SHOWERS DUE TO THE LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN BERING. AS
FOR THE ALEUTIANS...THE ONSLAUGHT OF FRONTS AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE MULTIPLE LOWS MOVING ALONG
THE CHAIN WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS WITH ONLY TEMPORARY BREAKS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. SAINT PAULS WEATHER WOES CONTINUE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING STRATUS AND FOG INTO THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE GENERAL PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE BERING BRINGING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF LOWS TO THE REGION AS
WELL AS THE RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE WARNING 172
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 111 141

DWK MAY 11