Gale Warning 390, NWS Anchorage, AK

853 
FZAK62 PAFC 142353
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-151500-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR 59N 169W WILL MOVE TO 60N 179E MON AFTERNOON AT 996
MB. A 976 MB LOW NEAR 52N 173E WILL MOVE TO 55N 170W AT 979 MB SUN
AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 55N 161W AT 986 MB MON AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-151500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 S OF 56N IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 25 KT N OF 56N. NW WIND
25 KT S OF 56N. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI MAY 13 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
MON.  BY TUE THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE BERING WHILE
MAINTAINING AGREEMENT ELSEWHERE.  THE NAM WAS USED BECAUSE OF
TOPOGRAPHIC ADVANTAGE.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA DOMINATES THE BERING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STRETCHING TOWARDS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA. TO THE EAST...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF YAKUTAT IS STATIONARY.

.AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR ALONG A NORTH SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA
BY LATE THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE TANANA VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTH CENTRAL...
ONSHORE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
HELP TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST TONIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE COAST RIDGE AND THE TROUGH NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN.
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER COOK INLET SAT NIGHT AND SUN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS...
A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR IS BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO WEST WINDS SAT MORNING AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE FRONT WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OPENING UP AFTER THE FRONT PASSES BY. ANOTHER
BAND OF WIND AND RAIN WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
STATIONARY LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS...A THERMAL LOW IN THE INTERIOR AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH GULF COAST.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WATCH...KUSKOKWIM RIVER...ZONE 152
MARINE...GALES...150 155 160 165 170 172 175 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RHH MAY 11