Gale Warning 378, NWS Anchorage, AK

810 
FZAK52 PAFC 292302
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301500-
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DISSIPATE 
185 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY SAT EVENING. A DEVELOPING PACIFIC 
LOW WILL TRACK TO 225 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA SAT AFTERNOON AT 
978 MB AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-301500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-301500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-301500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-301500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND TO 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ170-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. NORTH AND EAST OF UNALASKA...E WIND 20 KT
BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-301500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-301500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. E OF SEGUAM
ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT...EXCEPT 7 FT BERING SIDE. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-301500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-301500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT EAST OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT EAST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE
20 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT.  
$$

PKZ179-301500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1200 PM AKDT THU APR 28 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW DOMINATES
THE BERING SEA THIS MORNING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT HEADED ONSHORE
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS BUILDING
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND SLOWING DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AREAS OF SNOW
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PRIMARILY ABOVE FREEZING DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATION. WARMER AIR IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ONSHORE WITH
THE FRONT SO EXPECT A CHANGE-OVER TO MOSTLY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE FRONT ARE DIMINISHING AS
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH JUST SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW.
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE VERY CLOSE ON THIS LOW SO WILL UPDATE
FORECAST BASED ON THAT SOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE BUILDING RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL CAUSE THE NORTH END OF THE FRONT TO STALL. THE SOUTH END OF
THE FRONT WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THIS IN TURN WILL
RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ON FRIDAY. SO FOR TONIGHT THE BULK OF RAIN WILL
BE CONFINED TO KODIAK ISLAND TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND UP COOK
INLET TO THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT NORTH AND EAST OF THIS ZONE. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE USUAL GAPS
OF TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COPPER RIVER. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE WIND IN THESE
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT MUCH MORE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
SHORT-WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD RIGHT THROUGH THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INLAND. SURFACE RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY AS REMNANTS OF FRONT MOVE
THROUGH BUT THEN BUILD BACK IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL CONTINUE
EACH DAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AREAS OF RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
NORTHERN END OF THE FRONT STALLED OUT OVER THE REGION. COASTAL
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRIER BUT WITH WEAK FLOW GENERALLY OFF THE
BERING SEA LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE PRESENT. THERE WILL BE SOME
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT COMPLETELY WASHES OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH UPPER TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC. A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH IN LINE MARCHES IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS LOW WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CHAIN SO MOST OF THE BERING
SEA LOOKS CALM AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER FLOW ILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
WILL HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE ANOTHER LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE THIS
LOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK REACHING SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE
IN THE WEEK. PRIOR TO THAT THE MAINLAND WON'T SEE ANY MAJOR
STORMS...SO SHOULD SEE SOME SUN ON MOST DAYS ALONG WITH SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 11