Gale Warning 369, NWS Anchorage, AK

450 
FZAK52 PAFC 231151
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-240300-
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 973 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK MOVES TO NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM
AT 991 MB SUN EVENING. A 1002 MB LOW MOVES TO 320 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 110 NM NORTH OF ATKA AT 999 MB SUNDAY
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-240300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-240300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-240300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE 
MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-240300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-240300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.   
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-240300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-240300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WINDS 15 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-240300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-240300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT APR 23 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT FRI APR 22 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...THE MODELS ARE IN AMAZINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 60 HRS CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. THE NAM OVERALL BEST HANDLES MOST OF THE LOCAL EFFECT OF
WIND PRECIPITATION SHADOWING IN THE EAST AND WILL USED HEAVILY IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE GFS LOOKS REASONABLE OUT IN THE WESTERN
DOMAIN.

.UPPER LEVELS...
500MB...A BROAD RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF  OF THE
ALASKA TO OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. BY SAT AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA NW TO OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE
RIDGE THEN UNDERGOES LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. THE
OCCLUDED LOW CENTER SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS APPEARS TO MERGE
WITH A SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT TO THE SE SAT. THE GENERAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THEN LIFTS NORTH TO OVER BRISTOL BAY SUN AFTERNOON. THE
COMPLEX CONTINUES NW AND WEAKENS AS YET ANOTHER LOW COMPLEX MOVES SE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SW ALASKA...THROUGH
THE NW GULF...TO THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH TODAY AND
WEAKENS. A SECONDARY FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF MOVES TO OVER
BRISTOL BAY AND THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
CONTINUES NORTH AND WEAKENS INTO SUN. THE MAIN LOW CENTER SOUTH OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS APPEARS TO MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE
SE TONIGHT. THE COMBINED CENTER THEN MOVES TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND
SLOWLY WEAKENS ON SUN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA INTO SUN AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL TROUGHS MOVE NORTH AND THE LOW
COMPLEX LIFTS NORTH. STRONGEST GRADIENTS LIKELY THROUGH SAT WITH
RESULTANT VERY STRONG GAP FLOWS...AND GALES/STORMS OVER THE
GULF...AND BARRIER JET DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN AS GRADIENTS RELAX SOME. A TYPICAL
PRECIPITATION PATTERN WILL HOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
GENERALLY DRY DOWN-SLOPING CONDITIONS IN VALLEYS AND ABUNDANT
PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTS AND EAST/SE EXPOSURES. TEMPS SHOULD BE
WARMING OVER THE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO THE LIONS SHARE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RAIN. HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SOME
COLD SPOTS PRONE TO COLD AIR DAMMING WILL SEE SOME SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES.

.SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...A SERIES OF FRONTS ROTATING AROUND A LOW SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL RESULT IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.ALEUTIANS...THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE BERING MOVES SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
BERING AND GULF WHICH WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...125 129 130 132 138 140 141 165 170
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...179 185.
.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY

RMC APR 11