Gale Warning 351, NWS Anchorage, AK

268 
FZAK51 PAFC 111156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120300-
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A COMPLEX 998 MB LOW 90 NM SW OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE WEAKENING TO 1002 MB THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-120300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-120300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-120300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-120300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-120300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING W OF BARREN ISLANDS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT EXCEPT 4 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE
MORNING. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-120300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 5 FT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NW 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-120300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-120300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ141-120300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT MON APR 11 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SUN APR 10 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO DO WELL. THERE IS EVEN
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS TO HOW THE SMALL LOWS EMBEDDED IN THE LOW
COMPLEX IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE HANDLED.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND PART OF THE STATE WITH SLIGHT RIDGING IN
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS SLIGHT RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO A MORE SIGNIFICANT HIGH PRESSURE REGION.
THE SURFACE WILL REFLECT THIS RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THERE IS A BROAD COMPLEX LOW
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUN NOW BEING ABLE TO MORE EFFECTIVELY
HEAT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THE AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EAST
OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP...BUT MOSTLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED INTO THE COOK INLET REGION THIS
MORNING AND THAT PROVIDED ENOUGH ADDITIONAL LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA
VALLEY AREAS DURING THE MORNING.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST... THE BROAD COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE
DEVELOPING BERING SEA RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE ARCTIC BRINGING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS GENERALLY UNSTABLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 160 170.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 11