Gale Warning 34, NWS Anchorage, AK

301 
FZAK62 PAFC 290027
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW AT 61N 179W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR ANADYR BY SAT
AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW AT 47N 162W WILL MOVE TO 55N 160W BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN INLAND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND DISSIPATE
SAT NIGHT.  ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
DEEPEN TO 986 MB AT 56N 157W BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ413-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-291500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2011

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT..NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST THU JAN 27 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND ECWMF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CURRENT
ALEUTIAN SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...NAM IS SLOWER AND A BIT WEAKER. TWO OTHER SYSTEMS OF INTEREST
IN THE WEST.  A LOW THAT DEVELOPS JUST OFF SOUTHEAST TIP OF KAMCHATKA
IS PROGED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ON SAT...LIKE EC SOLUTION BETTER
AS LOW IS FURTHER TO THE WEST. SECOND SYSTEM IS LOW THAT MOVES SOUTH
OF SAND POINT ON SAT MORNING.  APPEARS THAT NAM AND EC ARE BETTER
SOLUTIONS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND AND EASTERN
GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAIN ENERGY IS WITH ALEUTIAN SYSTEM...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS AS IT STALLS OUT OVER NORTHERN AK PEN AND WESTERN
CAPES.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
BERING REGION...HIGH SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER EASTERN AL AND AK PEN
SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT.  STRONG NW WINDS AND SNOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. LOW CENTER MOVES
OVER PRIBS THIS EVENING SO WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT
INCREASING FRI MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  ALSO EXPECT SOUTHWEST
FLOW FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING IN WESTERN BERING. NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SHOULD START TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AK PEN SAT MORNING...WOULD
EXPECT SNOW POSSIBLY TURNING TO RAIN IN AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NAM 850 MB
TEMPS REMAIN BELOW -5C.

SOUTHWEST...FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.  LOOKS LIKE PRECIP IS
GOING TO BE LIGHT INLAND BUT SOME SUBSTANTIAL SE TO NE WINDS. TEMPS
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH THAT SNOW IS REASONABLY HEAVY...SOMEWHAT
DIMINISHING CHANCES OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD EXPERIENCE POOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FRI NIGHT.

SOUTHCENTRAL...GENERALLY CLEAR WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI.  MODELS INDICATING FRONT MOVING OVER KODIAK IS
FRI MORNING WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOW AND RAIN. REMNANT OF
FRONT MOVES UP COOK INLET FRI NIGHT BUT LOOKS QUITE WEAK BY THEN SO
ONLY EXPECTING CLOUDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN PORTION OF
STATE AND GULF THE MAIN AREA OF INTEREST IS THE NORTH PACIFIC SYSTEM
THAT MOVES UP NEAR SAND POINT ON SAT AND BEYOND.  LOOKS AS IF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL AREA SUN.  SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
SO NOT SURE ON DETAILS BUT MOST LIKELY SEE SNOW AND RAIN WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ZONES.  EC MODEL INDICATING A TROUGH IN WESTERN GULF
SUN AFTERNOON WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW FOR COOK INLET AFTER I
MOVES OVER KODIAK ISLAND WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 187    HIGH WIND WARNING 181
MARINE...STRMS:  150 155 160 165 180 170 171 151  GALES:ELSEWHERE IN
           WEST
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JAN 11