Gale Warning 338, NWS Anchorage, AK

082 
FZAK52 PAFC 051147
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060300-
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A DEVELOPING PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK TUE
AFTERNOON AT 990 MB AND THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO 944 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE TO 125 NM NORTHWEST OF ST PAUL AT 943 MB ON THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-060300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-060300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-060300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY PORT MOLLER E. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY
PORT MOLLER E IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-060300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 65
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING SIDE...SEAS 16 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS
18 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 30 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 34 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-060300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40
KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-060300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 55 KT. GUSTS TO 70 MPH. SEAS 21 FT BERING SIDE...30 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 32 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF
176W...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT
BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-060300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-060300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 60 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-060300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT TUE APR 5 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SAINT PAUL ISLAND N. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND IN THE MORNING. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
135 PM AKDT MON APR 4 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
RESULTING IN RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE ONE MATURE LOW EXITS TO THE EASTERN GULF A 120KT+ SUBTROPICAL
JET ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS IS PUSHING EVERYTHING QUICKLY
EASTWARD. A VERY WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
TO WESTERN GULF IS WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER TOP
OF A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH VERTICAL MOTION WITH
THIS TROUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A WEAK LOW OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST.
THIS IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED SOUTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OUT WEST IS AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A
SHORT-WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING RAPIDLY TRACKING TOWARD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A CORRESPONDING COLD
OCCLUSION WITH STRONG WINDS AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BEHIND
THE FRONT.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH MOVEMENT OF
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN BERING AS IT REACHES
SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT TIMING OF
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW IN ANCHORAGE AND
VICINITY...WITH THE DIFFERENCE BEING EITHER BEFORE OR DURING
THE EARLY MORNING RUSH HOUR TRAFFIC. WILL EVALUATE 18Z RUNS
BEFORE FINALIZING TIMING. NAM IS ALSO AN OUTLIER WITH SPEED OF
MAJOR PACIFIC LOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY SO PREFER AVERAGE
POSITION OF GFS/ECMWF. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT TIMING IS USUALLY
A PROBLEM IN THESE FAST FLOW SCENARIOS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
STRENGTHEN AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGE WILL INCREASE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND DRY OUT THE LEE SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. THE BERING SEA TROUGH WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO FORM AHEAD OF IT BUT THE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY FROM ANCHORAGE TO THE MAT-SU UNTIL
THE TROUGH IS RIGHT OVERHEAD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER
THIS FIRST TROUGH REACHES ANCHORAGE. LOOKS TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM RIGHT NOW SO EVEN WITH SLIGHT COOLING
ALOFT PRECIP-TYPE COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IN ANY
CASE...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND
TROUGH CATCHES UP TO THE FIRST AND COLD ADVECTION ENSUES. SURFACE
LOW OVER WEST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THEREFORE...PLAN ON INCREASING POPS AND ADDING
IN SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. HOWEVER...THE
DETAILS OF THE UPPER LEVELS ARE STILL IN QUESTION SO WILL BE
CONSERVATIVE WITH AMOUNTS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN A GIVEN SOLUTION
INCREASES. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH...BUT
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG BERING SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY
THURSDAY.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH MOVE ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SNOW WILL SPREAD INLAND. COLD ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. AFTER A BREAK LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW WILL MOVE INTO BERING WITH A STRONG FRONT
LIKELY IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS PRECIPITATION FIRST BEGINS...BUT
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO MOSTLY RAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF BLOWING SNOW ISSUE IN THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AT THE ONSET. AT THIS POINT DON'T THINK IT WILL BE OF A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT A BLIZZARD BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TUESDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE BETWEEN TWO JET STREAKS. THIS
WILL BE A VERY LARGE SYSTEM...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE BERING SEA
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN TO MAX WINDS OUT AT STORM FORCE
FOR NOW BUT IF MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN NEXT MODEL CYCLE WILL HAVE
TO INCREASE SOME AREAS TO HURRICANE FORCE AND CONSIDER ISSUING HIGH
WIND WATCHES OR BLIZZARD WATCHES ALONG THE ALEUTIANS. LOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR WILL FEED IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE BERING
STRAIT LATE IN THE WEEK. THUS...STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DOMINATE FOR A FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAJOR STORM IN THE BERING MID WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF ALASKA ALL THE WAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOOKS LIKE UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AFTER
THIS WITH ANOTHER STORM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
LATE IN THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...130 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175
                        176 179 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...160 165 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB APR 11