Gale Warning 325, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK61 PAFC 302253
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011500-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 50N 144W WILL MOVE TO 53N 140W AND STRENGTHEN TO
990 MB SUN AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 55N 135W AT 1002 MB
MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2011

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-011500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 30 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1250 PM AKDT FRI APR 29 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS NOW
CENTERED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW EXTENDS FROM BRISTOL
BAY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE PACIFIC. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT HAS STALLED DUE TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS PROGRESSING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE DECENT
SHORT-WAVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TRACKING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MAINLAND. THESE WILL PLAY HEAVILY INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA TO SUSITNA VALLEY THIS MORNING
PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN. AS THE UPPER SHORT-WAVES AND
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVE NORTHWARD THE RIDGE IS BUILDING
WESTWARD FROM SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS TEMPORARILY
CLEARED SKIES IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA...BUT EXPECT MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO MOVE BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE KENAI AND CHUGACH
MOUNTAINS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS WINDS SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM ANCHORAGE TO PALMER AS WELL AS
ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE ARE SOME POSITION DIFFERENCES WITH PACIFIC
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF ON SUNDAY. THERE HAS GENERALLY BEEN A
WESTWARD TREND IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF
WHICH HAS TRENDED EASTWARD ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN. INHERITED FORECAST
IS CLOSEST TO THE FURTHER WEST TRACK OF THE GFS AND WILL REMAIN
THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COASTAL ZONE...BECOMING
MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE GULF. LOCALIZED GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN ANCHORAGE AND THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN
SHOULD LIGHTEN UP OVERNIGHT AS THE TRIPLE POINT MOVES TO NEAR
AUGUSTINE ISLAND AND A DOWN VALLEY/DOWN INLET FLOW DEVELOPS. RAIN
WILL PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE KENAI PENINSULA AND SOUTHWARD
TODAY BUT WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT
AS SURFACE FRONT AND TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES ARRIVE. EVERYTHING WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON SATURDAY BRINGING A GOOD SHOT
OF SHOWERS TO MOST AREAS. SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY IN AN AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORT-WAVES...BUT DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS A FEW SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE NORTH GULF COAST AND EASTERN COPPER BASIN LATE
IN THE DAY. CLOUDS AND PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE BY
MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA (FROM INLAND AREAS OF THE BRISTOL
BAY ZONE TO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY) THROUGH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS. ONE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES WILL
IMPACT THIS SAME AREA ON SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVERHEAD SO SOME CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR EXITS A NEW LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND MOVE TO JUST SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS ON SATURDAY. RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY NORTH AND EAST
OF THIS LOW AND THE LOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED.
THEREFORE...IT WILL STALL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY
AND THEN WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...EXPECT BENIGN
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE BERING SEA
AND ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AGREEMENT IN A PREDOMINANTLY BROAD
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STORM TRACK CENTERED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA FORM THE ALEUTIANS
TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
SETTLE INTO A VERY TYPICAL SPRING-TIME SHOWERY REGIME WITH MAINLY
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...175 176.
         GALE WARNING...172.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING...111.

SEB APR 11