Gale Warning 287, NWS Anchorage, AK

917 
FZAK51 PAFC 191631 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
830 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

UPDATED ZONE 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200300-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
AND REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST BY EARLY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-200300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-200300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-200300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-200300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-200300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 15 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-200300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-200300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
830 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-200300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
1 FOOT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-200300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

019 
FZAK51 PAFC 192322
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201500-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT AND
REACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST MON MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-201500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO SE 30 KT W OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-201500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-201500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-201500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.MON THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-201500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-201500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-201500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-201500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
S OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT E 35 KT S OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN 
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.

.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-201500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR
LESS. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

JAM MAR 11

767 
FZAK51 PAFC 201203
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210300-
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY.
A 1003 MB LOW FORMS 30 NM EAST OF KODIAK THIS EVENING AND
MOVES TO 120 NM EAST OF KODIAK MON AFTERNOON AT 1001 MB.

$$

PKZ120-210300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS 6
FT...BUILDING TO 10 FT W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT E OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-210300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-210300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-210300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-210300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-210300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-210300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-210300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT SUBSIDING TO 1 FOOT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-210300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 PM AKDT FRI MAR 18 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS A LARGE BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 963 MB BERING SEA LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF
SHEMYA. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
BERING SEA...WITH POCKETS OF STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT IS TRACKING UP THE AKPEN AND
PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. HOWEVER...THIS
FRONT IS RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED APART AS ITS PARENT LOW MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AND THE 140 KT UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES SOUTHWARD. CLOUD
TOPS ALONG THE FRONT WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY ON IR SATELLITE THIS
MORNING.

THE AXIS OF A SLENDER BUT WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED FROM KODIAK ISLAND NORTHWARD TO NORTON SOUND WHILE ITS
SURFACE COUNTERPART IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF RIDGE AND THE BERING LOW IS
LEADING TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
AMBIGUITY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE 12Z GFS THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND WEST AND THE NEW 18Z NAM THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND
EAST. THE EC IS A GOOD MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION AND WAS USED WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DESPITE THESE DISCREPANCIES....THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO ISSUE HURRICANE FORCE AND HIGH
WIND WARNINGS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE AKPEN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARD EASTERN RUSSIA. STRONG WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE
FOCUS OF THE WEATHER MOVES TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA WITH THE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY.
THIS LOW HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUING OF A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ZONES
181 185.
AS THIS LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGIONS AS WELL...BUT THEY WILL BE BELOW
WARNING LEVELS BY THEN.
THINGS ARE MUCH QUIETER EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE WITH THE BIGGEST
QUESTIONS BEING WEATHER THE STRATUS IN THE COOK INLET AND MAT-SU
VALLEY REGIONS WILL DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG IN THOSE AREAS TONIGHT IF IT DOES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
RETURN TO MORE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. THIS MEANS
MANY WEATHER FEATURES WILL BE FAST MOVING AND WEAK TO MODERATE IN
INTENSITY. AT THIS POINT IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN THE
EXACT DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES...BUT A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SNOW ARE A GOOD BET
FOR MOST OF THE DOMAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 181 185.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 160 175 176 179 180.
         STORM 155 165 171.
         HURRICANE FORCE 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 11