Gale Warning 241, NWS Anchorage, AK

059 
FZAK61 PAFC 061245
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-070300-
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR 55N 146W WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE NEAR 55N
150W SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-070300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

223 
FZAK61 PAFC 070047
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071500-
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 999 MB LOW NEAR 55N 149W WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 55N 152W SUN EVENING.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ351-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-071500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN MAR 6 2011

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST SAT MARCH 5 2011

.UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE ANALYSIS...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THIS MORNING
CONSISTS OF THREE MAIN FEATURES. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA WITH A
CUTOFF HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING STRAIT HAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A STRONG 180KT JET STREAK LAYS SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG 40N.

AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A 988 MB LOW
ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH GAPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS
A SOLID PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR. STRATUS CONTINUES TO
COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING WHILE THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS DEEPENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY ON IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST AS THEY ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY TRACK THE DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THERE IS A SMALL SECONDARY LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
MAIN DEVELOPING LOW. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE DOING THE BEST JOB OF
CAPTURING THIS FEATURE WHILE THE ECMWF NEARLY MISSES IT ENTIRELY.
THUS THE NAM IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE OUT WEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS ACROSS
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARE CLOSE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW
AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. ONCE AGAIN THE NAM WAS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION AS IT INITIALIZED WELL COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL MOVE WESTWARD TODAY
AND TONIGHT BRINGING GALES AND A CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
KODIAK ISLAND BY TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES OVER THE ISLAND.
PRECIP SHOULD DEFINITELY FALL AS SNOW TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE
LONG TRAJECTORY OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF WATERS.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL ON KODIAK...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
MAKE IT OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND ITS PARENT
UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SHUNTED INTO BRISTOL BAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ON TAP FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COURTESY OF CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY AIR ALOFT. LOOK FOR
CLOUDS TO INCREASE BY TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...AS
MOISTURE FROM THE LOW IN THE GULF FILTERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
EAST. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE THE REST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A SUNNY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA..

.ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP CONSISTING OF PERIODS OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW PRECIPITATING OUT OF THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING TONIGHT AS THE DEEPENING LOW IN THE
PACIFIC MOVES NORTH TOWARDS THE CHAIN PUSHING A WARM FRONT INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY EVENING...KEEPING RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
THERE AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM FORECAST... LOOK FOR DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE STATE. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE
CONFINED TO THE ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHERN/WESTERN BERING AS A SERIES
OF LOWS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE RUNNING INTO THE BLOCKING HIGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 121 130 132 138 140 170 171 172 175 176
                        179 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...121 129 130 140 141 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

WOOD FEB 11