Gale Warning 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

856 
FZAK61 PAFC 210037
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211500-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW NEAR 54N 161W MOVES TO 60N 147W AT 992 MB FRI AFTERNOON
AND DISSIPATES FRI NIGHT. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 52N 158W FRI MORNING
MOVES TO 60N 147W AT 990 MB SAT MORNING AND DISSIPATES.
$$

PKZ351-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-211500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST THU JAN 20 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 20 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

JAM JAN 11

277 
FZAK61 PAFC 211238
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220300-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF MOVES INLAND LATER THIS MORNING. A 989 MB LOW NEAR 53N 157W THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES TO NEAR 60N 141W AT 984 MB SAT MORNING AND THEN MOVES
INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

583 
FZAK61 PAFC 220002
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221500-
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 988 MB LOW NEAR 54N 154W MOVES TO NEAR 60N 144W AT 981 MB SAT
AFTERNOON AND MOVES INLAND. A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN 
GULF SAT NIGHT AND REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-221500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI JAN 21 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST WED JAN 19 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND
SPLITTING INTO TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES...A HIGH OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA
AND AN EASTWARD MIGRATING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
IS ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST AND BRING THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD SNOW IN QUITE SOME TIME TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. A
STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MEANDERING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SHEMYA. THE WEAKENING 960 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALSO ESSENTIALLY
STATIONARY SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...THOUGH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
WAVES IS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN GULF.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC WEATHER
ELEMENTS OUT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
TO CAPTURE THE DETAILS OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEMS AS WE TRANSITION INTO
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. THERE IS RELATIVELY GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE
FIRST TWO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE GULF IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT THE MODELS THEN QUICKLY FALL APART WITH A THIRD WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS THE GULF OUT AROUND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DO REGROUP AND BRING THE MEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT FROM
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE CURRENT VOLATILE MODEL SOLUTIONS...TODAY'S
FORECAST PACKAGE USED THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF SINCE THE NEWEST RUN
IS SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND THE
INHERITED GRIDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT SURGES ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM...BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A THICK CLOUD
DECK WILL HELP TO RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
MOISTURE-LADEN SHORTWAVE PUSHES ONSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA IS ALSO BRINGING AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TODAY IN KOLIGANEK
AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN TOOKSOK BAY. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WRAP AROUND NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...BROAD SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BAND THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE
ALEUTIANS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DEVELOPING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ROTATING INTO
THE REGION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 127 130 138 140 176 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING...127 128 140 141 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KS JAN 11