Gale Warning 181, NWS Anchorage, AK

820 
FZAK52 PAFC 081224
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-090300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 983 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 60 NM 
NORTHWEST OF CHIGNIK TUE AFTERNOON AT 992 MB AND MOVES INLAND OVER
WESTERN ALASKA TUE EVENING. A 1007 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA
TUE NIGHT MOVES TO 270 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WED NIGHT AT 1021 MB.
$$

PKZ150-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26
FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-090300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...VARIABLE WIND TO
15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NW WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-090300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-090300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-090300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT E
WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT S OF KIPNUK. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT EXCEPT NW 30 KT FROM UNALASKA E. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SIDE...20 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-090300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-090300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 45 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 16
FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-090300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-090300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NE 25 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ179-090300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 8 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
220 PM AKST MON FEB 7 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE. FORECAST TRENDS ARE
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE ALSO REASONABLE.

.UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG 500 MB LOW CENTER WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL AK PEN
TUE AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND TRAVERSES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS AN OPEN WAVE WED. SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM. 850 MB TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RISE TO AROUND 0 TO 2C OVER BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT AND 0 TO
-2C OVER THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA TUE. TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF THROUGH WED...BUT SHOULD START COOLING
AGAIN ACROSS SW AK AS COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE RETREATING WAVE.

THE 500 MB PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE MAINLAND
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK WITH SERIES OF MINOR WAVES
MOVING EAST.

.SURFACE...
WINDY...WARM...AND WET IS GENERALLY THE PATTERN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. TEMPS SHOULD COOL OUT
WEST AND STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE MAINLAND BY WED
MORNING...HOWEVER GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA INTO EARLY THU.

THE MAIN FEATURE OF IMPORTANCE IS A 970S MB LOW CENTER OVER THE NE
PACIFIC WHICH IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH. THIS CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE AK PEN TUE MORNING. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE MAINLAND TUE. THE OCCLUDED
FRONT MOVES OVER THE AK PEN/ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE SW
MAINLAND AND WESTERN GULF TONIGHT. THE FRONT PROGRESSES EAST TO THE
NORTH GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL AK TUE THEN HEADS EAST AND WEAKENS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUE THEN MOVES TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA ON WED. A WEAK FRONT MOVES TO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS TUE EVENING THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST
ALEUTIANS WED EVE.

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
OVERNIGHT AND TUE. GALES AND STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
COASTAL MARINE AREAS AND GALES IN THE OFFSHORE MARINE AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUE. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG
GAP FLOWS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MAT-SU...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND EASTERN KENAI PEN. WINDS ACROSS
TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE...SHOULD BE FAIRLY STRONG BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL REMAIN BELOW WARNING LEVELS.  WINDS OVER
MOST AREAS WILL DIMINISH WED MORNING. PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH A
MIX INLAND...EXCEPT COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH SHOULD BE GENERALLY
SNOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA
VALLEY LOOKS PROMISING FOR TUE WITH THE ONSET OF SE UPSLOPE FLOW
BEGINNING TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE SHOWERY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL WED.

.SW ALASKA...
EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF GALES FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. HIGH WIND CONDITIONS
LOOK PROMISING OVER THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUE MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LOW A LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCE GAP
FLOWS. THE HIGH WIND THREAT SHOULD END TUE AFTERNOON OVER BRISTOL
BAY. MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT IS ALREADY MOVING OVER THE AK PEN AND
EAST ALEUTIANS AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SPREADING INTO BRISTOL BAY.
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW FREEZING LEVELS OF AROUND 2200FT NEAR KING
SALMON AND 1600FT OVER BETHEL. THE MCGRATH SOUNDING SHOWS
SUB-FREEZING AIR BELOW 1600FT WITH ABOVE FREEZING AIR TO ABOUT
5700FT.

THINKING THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AK PEN AND BRISTOL BAY WILL BE
MAINLAND RAIN...MAYBE MIXED NORTH INLAND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH TUE.
MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY ALSO OVER THE DELTA TUE. MAY SEE A FEW
POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY WEST OF BETHEL. WHILE THE
SOUNDING OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SHOWS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL...THE THOUGHT IS THAT DOWNSLOPE SHOULD MITIGATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND TREND TOWARD SNOW ON TUE NIGHT AND WED AS COLD AIR MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ONCE FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES...RESPITE WILL BE
BRIEF. AS A SECOND SYSTEM IS CLOSE ON ITS HEELS. SECOND SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA INSTEAD
OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL FLOW  WILL STEER NORTH PACIFIC SURFACE
LOWS INTO BOTH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DIRECTLY INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH...161
MARINE...GALE WARNING...120 125 132 140 141 155 160 180 170 172
         STORM WARNING...130 138 150
         HEAVY SPRAY WARNING...185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC FEB 11