Gale Warning 105, NWS Anchorage, AK

506 
FZAK51 PAFC 241230
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250300-
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 275 NM SE OF KODIAK AT 969
MB MON AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA LATE
TUESDAY MORNING AT 980 MB. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 370 NM
SE OF KODIAK TUE AFTERNOON AT 981 MB AND THEN MOVES TO 120 NM SE OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 980 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ120-250300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. E OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E
WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT BUILDING
TO 23 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND
45 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-250300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-250300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-250300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-250300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING. SEAS 16
FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT EXCEPT 9 FT W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT EXCEPT
9 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-250300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-250300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-250300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO
6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-250300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 23 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE OVERALL PRESSURE
PATTERN BUT THERE ARE SOME DETAILS IN THIS DYNAMICALLY COMPLEX SYSTEM
THAT ARE CAUSING SOME PROBLEMS. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE ELONGATION OF THE WEATHER FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AS THE
GFS IS KEEPING IT MORE CONSOLIDATED TO THE WEST WHICH IS NOT MATCHING
UP TO WHAT IS BEING SEEN ON SATELLITE. THE GFS RECOVERS FROM THIS AND
WAS USED PAST THE FIRST DAY AND A HALF IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA. THE MAIN JET STREAM IS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS IT COMES
OFF OF JAPAN AND FOLLOWS THE 35N PARALLEL BEFORE CURVING TOWARD THE
UPPER RIDGE IN THE GULF. THERE IS ALSO A JET STREAK AT 250 MB OVER
SOUTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS LIKELY A CONTRIBUTING REASON AS TO WHY THE
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA HAS BEEN SO STRONG.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A KINK IN THE WEATHER FRONT
WAS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT BETWEEN ATKA AND THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE ACCELERATED THE WINDS IN THE EASTER
BERING SEA TO HURRICANE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING AND BROUGHT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.
A TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR KODIAK WITH A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
BRINGING STORM FORCE EASTERLY WINDS TO THAT AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE NORTH GULF COAST IS EXPERIENCING STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STRONG WEATHER FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BUT ITS PASSING WILL ALSO
ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN EARNEST OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
AREA. THROUGH THE DAY TODAY THERE HAS BEEN STRONG DOWNSLOPING OVER
THE AREA SUPPRESSING THE PRECIPITATION BUT THAT WILL CHANGE WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE TWO BIGGEST AREAS OF CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE EAST ARE THOMPSON PASS AND
PORTAGE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM. FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND
EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM THERE ARE WINDS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH WITH
BLOWING SNOW. VISIBILITIES ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
BUT IT BEARS WATCHING THROUGH THE EVENING...OR UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
WHEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AND TURN PRECIPITATION TO MOSTLY
RAIN.
IN THOMPSON PASS THE BLIZZARD WATCH WAS CANCELED SINCE WINDS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE ENOUGH FOR A
WARNING...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE PASS.
THE SUSITNA VALLEY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN REGIONS OVERNIGHT AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
UPSLOPES ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
ROUGH WEATHER IS ALSO OCCURRING IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. THE BLIZZARD WARNING IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS EASILY
VERIFIED WITH 70 MPH WINDS AND OVER 12 HOURS OF VISIBILITIES OF ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COAST ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA ALSO WARRANTED A BLIZZARD WARNING BEING ISSUED AS NUMEROUS
LOCATIONS WERE AT NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN WINDS GUSTING FROM 55 TO
70 MPH. WIND CHILLS ARE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD IN THIS AREA AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW ALL DAY PRODUCING
WIND CHILLS FROM 45 BELOW TO 55 BELOW ZERO. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...WEATHER WILL SETTLE DOWN AFTER TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL KEEP SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THAT AREA BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHED. MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AS THE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY.
THE NEXT LARGE STORM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY. THIS IS A WARM SYSTEM THAT MAY QUICKLY
TURN TO RAIN IN THESE AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145. WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155.
BLIZZARD WARNING 155 195.
MARINE...STORM 132.
GALE 120 125 129 130 138 140 150 155 165 170 172 175 179 180 185.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JAN 11