Gale Warning 1026, NWS Anchorage, AK

499 
FZAK51 PAFC 281239
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 968 MB LOW 360 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR SITKA 
THIS AFTERNOON. A 983 MB LOW 40 NM NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL
WEAKEN TO 990 MB LATE THU NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AKST WED DEC 28 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 PM AKST TUE DEC 27 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...LONG-WAVE TROUGH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED
OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE UPPER JET AND STORM TRACK
IS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA REGION...ALTHOUGH THE JET DOES
CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO GUIDE STORMS TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE COLD CORE
UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND SOUTHWEST ALASKA THE
PAST COUPLE DAYS IS MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE/SUSITNA VALLEY CORRIDOR LED BY A SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
A MODERATELY INTENSE BAND OF SNOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MOVED THROUGH
ANCHORAGE AND VICINITY THIS MORNING BRINGING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.
AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW CONTINUE BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH WEAK LIFT
SUPPLIED BY THE UPPER LOW. ARCTIC AIR IS FLOWING OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PRODUCING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY. A STEADY STREAM OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS WELL AS ALONG KACHEMAK BAY.
WEST OF THE UPPER CENTER IS CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK UPPER
FEATURES AND BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND
INSTABILITY. THUS...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
DOMINATE THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES ON THE MESOSCALE BUT
THESE ARE ALL WEAK FEATURES THAT HAVE MINIMAL AFFECT ON THE
RESULTANT FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO
CURRENT FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPPER LOW WILL EXIT TO INTERIOR ALASKA TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
A DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION. AREAS OF MORE INTENSE INTENSE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY.
AS A STRONG LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TRACKS TO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BACK
UP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND STRONG GAP WINDS WILL RESUME. THIS WILL
ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT IN THAT AREA SO THINK REALLY LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE
ISOLATED. AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF THE WEAK SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SETTLE
UNDER A BROAD TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
INLAND WITH AREAS OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AS UPPER LOW MOVES TO INTERIOR ALASKA A FEW WEAK
WAVES WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD BEHIND IT. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL TO
REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR. OTHER THAN THAT LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION
OF CURRENT WEATHER WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE THIS WEEK SO EXPECT
CONTINUES SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. A LOW WILL FORM
OVER THE FAR WESTERN BERING MID WEEK AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL REMAIN WEAK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...LONG-WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND WITH MODELS HINTING AT SOME CHANGES IN FLOW AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY
IN WHAT THE CHANGES WILL BE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 130 132 138 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB DEC 11