Flood Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

325 
WGAK68 PAFC 092356
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
356 PM AKDT MON MAY 9 2011

AKZ152-101400-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110511T1900Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
356 PM AKDT MON MAY 9 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM ANIAK UPSTREAM TO NAPAIMIUT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* THE JUMBLED ICE FROM THE FALL BREAKUP ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER
  AROUND ANIAK CONTINUES TO HOLD. WATER IS HIGH NOW AND THE ICE
  JAM UPSTREAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK IS HOLDING BACK A SIGNIFICANT
  AMOUNT OF WATER.

* WHEN THE ICE JAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK RELEASES THE EXTRA PUSH OF 
 WATER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE ANIAK TO 
 NAPAIMIUT AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

068 
WGAK68 PAFC 101227
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
427 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

AKZ152-110200-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110511T1900Z/
/00000.0.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
427 AM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* THE JUMBLED ICE FROM THE FALL BREAKUP ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER 
 AROUND ANIAK CONTINUES TO HOLD. WATER IS HIGH NOW AND THE ICE 
 JAM UPSTREAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK IS HOLDING BACK A SIGNIFICANT 
 AMOUNT OF WATER. 

* WHEN THE ICE JAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK RELEASES THE EXTRA PUSH OF 
 WATER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE ANIAK TO 
 NAPAIMIUT AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

123 
WGAK68 PAFC 110001
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

AKZ152-111400-
/X.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110512T0000Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
401 PM AKDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG UPSTREAM TO NAPAIMIUT...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

* THE JUMBLED ICE FROM THE FALL BREAKUP ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER
  UPSTREAM OF ANIAK CONTINUES TO HOLD. WATER IS HIGH NOW AND THE
  ICE JAM UPSTREAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK IS HOLDING BACK A SIGNIFICANT
  AMOUNT OF WATER.

* WHEN THE ICE JAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK RELEASES THE EXTRA PUSH OF 
  WATER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE KALSKAG TO 
  NAPAIMIUT AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

490 
WGAK68 PAFC 111244
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
444 AM AKDT WED MAY 11 2011

AKZ152-120000-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110512T0000Z/
/00000.0.OT.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
444 AM AKDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG UPSTREAM TO NAPAIMIUT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* THE JUMBLED ICE FROM THE FALL BREAKUP ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER 
 UPSTREAM OF ANIAK CONTINUES TO HOLD. WATER IS HIGH NOW AND THE 
 ICE JAM UPSTREAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK IS HOLDING BACK A 
 SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WATER. 

* WHEN THE ICE JAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK RELEASES THE EXTRA PUSH OF 
 WATER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE KALSKAG TO 
 NAPAIMIUT AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

685 
WGAK68 PAFC 112226
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
226 PM AKDT WED MAY 11 2011

AKZ152-130100-
/X.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110514T0100Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
226 PM AKDT WED MAY 11 2011

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG UPSTREAM TO NAPAIMIUT...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* THE JUMBLED ICE FROM THE FALL BREAKUP ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER
  UPSTREAM OF ANIAK CONTINUES TO HOLD. WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN NEAR
  CROOKED CREEK FROM THEIR PEAK YESTERDAY HOWEVER THE WATER LEVEL
  REMAINS HIGH AND THE ICE JAM IS STILL HOLDING BACK A SIGNIFICANT
  AMOUNT OF WATER.

* WHEN THE ICE JAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK RELEASES...THE EXTRA PUSH OF
  WATER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE KALSKAG TO
  NAPAIMIUT AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.


&&

$$

JAM

285 
WGAK68 PAFC 130000
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

AKZ152-140100-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110514T0100Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
400 PM AKDT THU MAY 12 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER FROM KALSKAG UPSTREAM TO NAPAIMIUT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON

* THE JUMBLED ICE FROM THE FALL BREAKUP ON THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER
  UPSTREAM OF ANIAK IS STILL HOLDING. WATER LEVELS HAVE COME DOWN
  NEAR CROOKED CREEK FROM THEIR PEAK ON TUESDAY BUT THE WATER
  LEVEL IS STILL HIGH. THOUGH THE ICE JAM INTEGRITY HAS
  WEAKENED...IT IS STILL HOLDING BACK A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
  WATER.

* WHEN THE ICE JAM NEAR CROOKED CREEK RELEASES...THE EXTRA PUSH OF
  WATER STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING IN THE KALSKAG...ANIAK
  AND NAPAIMIUT AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

JAM

326 
WGAK68 PAFC 140033
FFAAFC

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKDT FRI MAY 13 2011

AKZ152-150200-
/X.EXT.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110516T0100Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
433 PM AKDT FRI MAY 13 2011

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT ANIAK...

THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVING TOWARD ANIAK HAS STALLED 3 MILES UP
  RIVER FROM ANIAK WHERE AN ICE JAM HAS FORMED. STRONGER ICE
  EXISTS JUST DOWNRIVER FROM ANIAK CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
  MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM TO OCCUR WHICH COULD CAUSE WATER LEVELS
  TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ANIAK SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24
  TO 48 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

JAM

206 
WGAK68 PAFC 141254
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 AM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

AKZ152-160100-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110516T0100Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
454 AM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT ANIAK...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVING TOWARD ANIAK HAS STALLED 3 MILES UP
  RIVER FROM ANIAK WHERE AN ICE JAM HAS FORMED. STRONGER ICE
  EXISTS JUST DOWNRIVER FROM ANIAK CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
  MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM TO OCCUR WHICH COULD CAUSE WATER LEVELS
  TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ANIAK SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36
  HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

569 
WGAK68 PAFC 150104
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

AKZ152-160100-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110516T0100Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
504 PM AKDT SAT MAY 14 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVING TOWARD ANIAK HAS STALLED 3 MILES UP
  RIVER FROM ANIAK WHERE AN ICE JAM HAS FORMED. STRONGER ICE
  EXISTS JUST DOWNRIVER FROM ANIAK CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
  MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM TO OCCUR WHICH COULD CAUSE WATER LEVELS
  TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ANIAK SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

704 
WGAK68 PAFC 151235
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
435 AM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2011

AKZ152-160100-
/X.CON.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110516T0100Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
435 AM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT ANIAK...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. 

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVING TOWARD ANIAK HAS STALLED 3 MILES UP
  RIVER FROM ANIAK WHERE AN ICE JAM HAS FORMED. STRONGER ICE
  EXISTS JUST DOWNRIVER FROM ANIAK CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
  MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM TO OCCUR WHICH COULD CAUSE WATER LEVELS
  TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ANIAK SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12
  HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

YOU ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION.
PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD
BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

899 
WGAK68 PAFC 152310
FFAAFC

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT ANIAK HAS BEEN
 CANCELLED...

AKZ152-160015-
/X.CAN.PAFC.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-110516T0100Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
310 PM AKDT SUN MAY 15 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER AT ANIAK HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL AT ANIAK. ICE IS
STILL IN PLACE DOWNRIVER FROM ANIAK BUT THE PROBABILITY OF
A SIGNIFICANT ICE JAM IS NOW SMALL. 

$$

025

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 AM AKDT MON MAY 9 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

SYNOPTICALLY THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. A NAM/GFS BLEND WAS PREFERRED IN THE EAST WITH THE GFS PREFERRED
OUT WEST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL PARENT LOW IS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA HEADED TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS
WEST. THE MOST POTENT OF THESE IS DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW IN
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND IS TRACKING NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS (DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE) OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF BEFORE
APPROACHING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE PUSHES THE LOW COMPLEX
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE TONIGHT IN THE GULF...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG THE GULF
COAST...AND WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NORTHERLY JET STREAK ON TUESDAY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA.

OUT TOWARDS THE BERING...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN STALL
OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND FAR WESTERN ALASKA MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF
FRONTS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND BRING A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER ALONG WITH
SOME STRONGER WINDS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST TODAY...THEN
RETREAT SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS THE PARENT SYSTEM TRACKS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WETTEST CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS
THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND
HELP INDUCE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY FLOW BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COOK INLET
REGION. AN APPROACHING JET STREAK FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON
WEDNESDAY MAY STRENGTHEN NORTHERLY WINDS A LITTLE FURTHER. THE BIG
CONCERN WITH WINDS WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH INCREASING
WINDS AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE A CONSIDERATION
FOR THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST
FORECASTS...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL DAYS OF SHOWERS MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH INCIPIENT MOISTURE TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES JUST
HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ISSUING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR RED FLAG
WARNING. OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK
AFTER THIS CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
BRISTOL BAY ZONE...WITH A GENERAL CLEARING AND WARMING TREND AS THE
SUN SHOULD MAKE A RETURN TO THE SKIES MOST AREAS FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND DUTCH HARBOR AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT ALONG WITH
THE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY KEEP LOW STRATUS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL ROTATE
DISTURBANCES NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO GALE FORCE AS WELL AS
PERIODS OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE BERING REGION GRADUALLY PUSHING
EASTWARD HIGH PRESSURE WITH ASSOCIATED TRANQUIL WEATHER OVER THE GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL REGIONS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUALLY SUGGEST A
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THESE DISTURBANCES EAST INTO THE GULF WITH EACH
NEW SET OF MODEL RUNS...YIELDING LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST BEYOND THIS WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING...152
MARINE...GALES...150 170 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

29 MAY 11