Brisk Wind Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

675 
FZAK52 PAFC 251215
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260300-
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 MB LOW 50 NM W OF CAPE NEWENHAM MOVES TO 50 NM NE OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND AT 981 MB TUE NIGHT. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO 100 NM W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WED NIGHT. A LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO
400 NM S OF ATKA AT 957MB WED AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES TO 250 NM S OF
DUTCH HARBOR WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-260300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...BERING SIDE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON.
PACIFIC SIDE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-260300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 30 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE JAN 25 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
100 PM AKST MON JAN 24 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...NAM GFS AND ECWMF IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
POSITION OF LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT.  GFS
POSITIONS CENTER FURTHER TO THE WEST WHILE NAM HAS A WEAKER ELONGATED
CENTER...ECWMF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE.  EAST DESK IS USING NAM
SOULTION...THE MAIN POINT IS GALES IN GULF TONIGHT WITH A FRONT
MOVING ONSHORE THIS EVENING.

WITH REGARD TO BERING LOW...ALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LOW CENTER
OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND LATE TUE MORNING
AS IT SLOWLY DISSIPATES AND THEN OVER ST MATTHEW WED MORNING.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...MAIN ENERGY IS WITH PARENT LOW OVER
SOUTHERN AK PEN WITH GULF LOW IN AREA OF STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL
JET..HENCE ITS RAPID MOVEMENT INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...NEXT FRONT MOVES ON SHORE SOMETIME BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD EXPECT RAIN WITH MIXED PHASE INLAND. LOOKS AS
GREATER ANCHORAGE AREA WILL DOWNSLOPE INITIALLY BUT CHANCE OF SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE LATE MORNING. A SECOND LOW MOVES INTO
NORTHERN GULF WED AFTERNOON WITH LOW CENTER NEAR ICY BAY.  NORTH
WINDS FOR COOK INLET BUT PRECIP REMAINING PWS AND EAST.

SOUTHWEST...FRONT MOVES ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT BRING COOLER TEMPS ON
THE BACKSIDE. MEANWHILE CONTINUED SNOWSHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

BERING...CLOUDY WITH NORTH FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NEXT
SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC REACHES CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WED MID-DAY. MODELS
INDICATING THIS LOW IN THE 950 MB RANGE SO EXPECT STRONG SE WINDS WED
EVENING ONWARDS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...MAIN FEATURE IS CONTINUANCE OF ALEUTIAN LOW
THAT MOVES OVER SEGUAM ISLAND THU EVENING AROUND 960 MB. THIS SYSTEM
THEN MOVES NW DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS OVER GULF AND
ALASKA MID WEEK.  REMNANT OF FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES THU EVENING. ALSO EXPECT STRONG NW WINDS ON
BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY WEST OF 175 W.

SOUTHCENTRAL...GENERALLY CLEAR WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THU AND FRI WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WEAKENING FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH REGION ON SAT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES: 120 185 130
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JMP JAN 11