Brisk Wind Advisory 31, NWS Anchorage, AK

146 
FZAK52 PAFC 092313
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1001 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF ST PAUL WILL MOVE TO 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK SUN MORNING AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 992 MB LOW 175 NM NORTH OF
ATTU WILL MOVE TO 115 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 1010 MB SUN
AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES 
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT INCREASING TO 35 KT W OF 160W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. . 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT E OF NUNIVAK ISLAND DURING
THE EVENING.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT W OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 
16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT...DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19
FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE EVENING. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 20 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT 30 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT APR 9 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT LATE EVENING. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

JAM APR 11

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT FRI APR 8 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER WELL AND ARE ALL ON
TRACK WITH THE BIG SYNOPTIC PICTURE. THERE IS THE NORMAL DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF BUT IT SHOULD NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WEATHER AROUND THE STATE THE LAST FEW DAYS IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND IS MAKING ITS WAY ON SHORE NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
THERE ARE NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE MAIN LOW THAT ARE BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE GULF
REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES HAS DEVELOPED INTO A POTENT
SURFACE LOW EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND DEVELOP A BROAD AND COMPLEX LOW IN THE GULF.
THE 250 MB JET STREAM WILL RUN OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND THEN DIP
SOUTH OF THE GULF AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WITH THE LOW MOVING ON SHORE NEAR THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS SEEING COLD ADVECTION SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION IS SEEING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
IS BRING A RAIN SNOW MIX. COMPLICATING THE SITUATION IS THE SECONDARY
SURFACE LOW EAST OF KODIAK. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND ALSO KEEPING THE STRONGER WINDS SOUTH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND OVERNIGHT AS THIS LOW BECOMES MORE
ENTRENCHED IN THE NORTHWEST GULF.
IN THE BERING SEA THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW
SHOWERS. THE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA...WHICH WILL INCREASE WESTERLY
WINDS AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE SETTLING INTO A MORE STABLE PATTERN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA...AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA . THIS WILL CREATE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 175 176 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 165 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

APR 11