Brisk Wind Advisory 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

913 
FZAK52 PAFC 130024
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131500-
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SHIFTS SOUTH INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC BY THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-131500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT...E WIND 20 KT
ELSEWHERE. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-131500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-131500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ180-131500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ171-131500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ172-131500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...21 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT BERING SIDE...22 FT PACIFIC
SIDE.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-131500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-131500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 

$$

PKZ179-131500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST WED JAN 12 2011

...FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
250 PM AKST TUE JAN 11 2011

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NOW CENTERED NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH IS
BRINGING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...THE FIRST OF A FEW CROSSED OVERNIGHT BRINGING STRONG WINDS
THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. OUT WEST...A WEAKENING LOW NEAR SHEMYA IS
QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWEST TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BUT IS WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT VACATES THE
REGION.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OUT WEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL...THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL BE WINDS INCREASING THIS EVENING THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION...STRENGTHENING THE GRADIENT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE SO WE
ARE ANTICIPATING WARNING LEVEL WINDS FOR A FEW OF THE TYPICAL
CHANNELED AREAS INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...VALDEZ...AND THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS
WILL INITIALLY MIX DOWN WARMER AIR ALOFT BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN PARTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER ACROSS
THE REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR LATER IN THE WEEK.

THE GRADIENT STAYS STRONG THROUGH THE WEEK...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO BRING OTHER
POTENTIAL WARNING LEVEL WINDS.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WEATHER IS MUCH MORE BENIGN OUT WEST WHERE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A GRADUAL COOLING IS UNDERWAY. COLD AIR WILL SLOWLY
ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND EACH SHORTWAVE...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL OR BELOW FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE NORTH AND
WEST ALLOWING FOR THE COLD AIR AND SHORT WAVES TO EVENTUALLY INVADE
THE EASTERN BERING LATER IN THE WEEK. UNTIL THEN...A SERIES OF WEAKER
LOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ZONE 111 131 135.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 127
         GALE WARNINGS 120 121 126 128 172 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB JAN 11