Brisk Wind Advisory 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

520 
FZAK52 PAFC 251222
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-260300-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. A 980 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTH OF KISKA FRI WILL MOVE TO 350 NM
SOUTH OF SHEMYA AT 981 MB LATE SAT.

$$

PKZ150-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-260300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-260300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-260300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-260300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-260300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-260300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-260300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-260300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-260300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 25 2011

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 24 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO DO WELL AS THEY ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE BIG WEATHER FEATURE IN THE STATE IS
A STRONG LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IS BREAKING DOWN AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL DUE TO THE STRONG STORM IN NORTHWEST ALASKA.
THE JET STREAM IS HELPING TO FUEL THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE IN WESTERN ALASKA. THE JET STREAM
THEN RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AROUND TO MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND
IS STILL BRINGING SOME STRONG WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT. A NEW
RIDGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STRONG WINDS PERSIST IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE BERING SEA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THERE IS A BIT OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
PRECIPITATION TURNS TO ALL SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN MIXED IN OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANY RAIN WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION BEFORE
COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. FROM ANCHORAGE NORTH PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ALL SNOW AND SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIER THE FURTHER NORTH ONE
GOES. A DECENT AREA OF STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IN COOK INLET AND
EXTENDING INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES AND TURNS FLOW MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE BERING SEA UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME A CLOSED
HIGH SUNDAY AND BOTH ECMWF AND GFS KEEP IT NEARLY STATIONARY CENTERED
NEAR BERING STRAIT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. A 1050-1055 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE INTERIOR SUN...THEN SLIDE
SE INTO YUKON MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO LIE ALONG EASTERN
GULF COAST COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW FROM 850 MB
ON UP...WILL LEAD TO GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH COASTAL PASSES AND
GAPS. COLDEST AIR OVER MAINLAND WILL BE SUN/MON...THEN 500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASE BY TUE/WED AS UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS A LITTLE FURTHER E FROM
BERING SEA. DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUN AND
MON OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND S OF THE AK RANGE...WITH SOME
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY TUE/WED. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL
MOVE N OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON...WITH RAIN ONLY AS FAR
EAST AS ADAK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 129 130 132 165 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 11