Blizzard Watch 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

210 
WWAK42 PAFC 060206
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
506 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BRING SNOWFALL
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA...

.A STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH INLAND AND 60 MPH ALONG
THE COAST POSSIBLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AKZ155-061515-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.A.0020.111206T1500Z-111207T1500Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
506 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

...BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

A BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 

* SNOW...5 TO 11 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.

* VISIBILITY...POSSIBLY REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT 
  TIMES.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND UP TO 50 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 60 MPH 
  ALONG THE COAST. 

* TIMING...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 
  LOWEST VISIBILITIES TUESDAY EVENING. 

* IMPACTS...A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 
  FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY 
  POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND 
  MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

212 
WWAK42 PAFC 060453
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
753 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL BRING SNOWFALL
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA...

.A STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING SNOW AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH INLAND AND 60 MPH ALONG
THE COAST REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF AND WINDS WILL DIE DOWN EARLY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING.

AKZ155-061900-
/X.UPG.PAFC.BZ.A.0020.111206T1500Z-111207T1500Z/
/X.NEW.PAFC.BZ.W.0043.111206T1500Z-111207T1800Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
753 PM AKST MON DEC 5 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* SNOW...5 TO 11 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST.

* VISIBILITY...REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WIND UP TO 50 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 60 MPH ALONG
  THE COAST.

* TIMING...6 AM TUESDAY THROUGH 9 AM AKST WEDNESDAY WITH LOWEST
  VISIBILITIES TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST SUN DEC 4 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THE GFS/ECMWF START TO DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF THE LOW
COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA BEYOND THIS POINT. GENERALLY...MODEL
BLENDS WILL BE TOWARD THE GFS IN THE EAST. IN THE WEST...BLENDS WILL
CONSIST OF THE GFS THROUGH WED MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO AN ECMWF
BLEND OF OFFICIAL GRIDS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

.EAST...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE SUSITNA
VALLEY...KENAI PEN...AND TO THE WEST GULF THIS MORNING IS MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD. STRONG GAP FLOWS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM REACHED
WARNING LEVELS ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WITH
GUSTS TO 118 MPH REPORTED ALONG THE UPPER ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE. GAP
FLOWS WERE ALSO EVIDENT ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN WHERE GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH WERE EVIDENT ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW BROUGHT WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE RAIN TO
LOW LYING AREAS AND MODERATE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
ALASKA AND COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.

.EAST...THE STORM FORCE LOW CENTER NEAR THE BERING STRAIT IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING. BRISK WEST TO SOUTHWEST WAS WINDS ARE
EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO OVER SW ALASKA. COLD ADVECTION
AND LAGGING UPPER TROUGH BROUGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE WEST
WITH SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EVIDENT OVER THE DELTA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.EAST...COLD AIR WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN CANADA LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
UNTIL UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE MON AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOCALIZED GAP FLOWS BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MON
MORNING. A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES TO THE WESTERN GULF WED AND
BRINGS IN A SHOT OF MOISTURE TO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHCENTRAL.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND BRING
STRONG GAP FLOWS ESPECIALLY TO ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE...MATANUSKA
VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE BOWL.

.WEST...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND SW
ALASKA TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NW PACIFIC MOVES
TO NEAR THE RAT ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY CENTER THEN FORMS
JUST SW OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TUE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MON MORNING THEN WEAKENS AS IT
IMPACTS SW ALASKA TUE. A SECONDARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SW
OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS INTENSIFIES AND MOVES TO THE AK PEN TUE.
EXPECT WARMING TEMPS WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AS FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND INTO SW ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF VARIOUS SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THEY ALL AGREE IT WILL
BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
AREAS ON MOST DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ZONE 145.
MARINE...STORM 170 171 172 175 176 185
         GALES 120 155 160 165 179 180 351 352
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC DEC 11