Wind Advisory 8, NWS Aberdeen, SD

874 
WWUS73 KABR 212004
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
304 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051-212115-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-110422T0000Z/
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-
FAULK-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MCLAUGHLIN...HERREID...EUREKA...
ABERDEEN...MOBRIDGE...IPSWICH...TIMBER LAKE...GETTYSBURG...
FAULKTON...REDFIELD...FORT PIERRE...ONIDA...PIERRE...HIGHMORE...
MILLER...MURDO...PRESHO...FORT THOMPSON
304 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011 /204 PM MDT THU APR 21 2011/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WIND SPEEDS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DO SO. THEREFORE...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. 

$$

PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT WED APR 20 2011

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY GRIDS MADE THIS EVENING. OVERALL
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH NEXT SYSTEM STILL SLATED TO
MOVE IN TO CENTRAL SD EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AFFECTING
THE AREA. WEAK ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STRONGER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING TROUGH REACHES THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES.
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND LOOKS TO
AFFECT MUCH OF THE PLAINS REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE MODELS HANDLE THE TRACK OF THE LOW
FAIRLY WELL...BUT THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH IT AS IT SLIDES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN TO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. ALL THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ABR CWA THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKS AS THOUGH LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE
ALL RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...WHEN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEGINS TO
GET PULLED DOWN ON BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
RAIN OR SNOW FOR THAT PERIOD. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT
CURRENTLY LOOKS AS THOUGH THE ENTIRE CWA COULD SEE BETWEEN ONE
HALF AND ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF FAIRLY QUIET AS THE FRIDAY STORM
SYSTEM IS EXITING TO THE EAST. LEFT THE EASTERN CWA DRY FOR NOW
ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MODELS HINTING AT PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING EAST OF I-29...BUT FEEL MOST ALL
OF THE ACTION SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR AN INTRODUCTION OF
POPS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA. SFC HIGH SCOOTS THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARMING TEMPS. SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING
IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR FOR EASTER SUNDAY SO LOOKING AT TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. WEAK DISTURBANCE IN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW MAY LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA AT
THIS TIME.

MODELS ARE THEN IN BIG DISAGREEMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
MAKER FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GFS PLASTERS THE AREA WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A POTENT SFC LOW SLIDES ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. GEM
IS FURTHER SOUTH...KEEPING MOST OF PRECIP OVER NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
12Z RUN OF THE EC...AND ITS PREVIOUS RUN IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
DOES NOT EVEN HAVE THIS SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH. FOR NOW HAVE SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST AND WILL ADJUST AS
THE TIME GETS CLOSER.

TEMPS WILL MODERATE FROM WHAT READINGS HAVE BEEN ACROSS THIS AREA
THE PAST WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR/KMBG HAVE CLEARED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY SKC
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE. AFTER 12Z THURS...LOW END VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD...ALONG WITH -SHRA/SHRA.

LOW END VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY THRU LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. SKC EXPECTED
FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE. THE LOWER
VFR CIGS AND MVFR CIGS ON TUES WILL REACH EASTERN SD CLOSER TO
LATE MORNING OR MID DAY...ALONG WITH -SHRA/SHRA.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
433 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-210945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
433 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011 /333 AM MDT WED APR 20 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SD