Wind Advisory 1, NWS Aberdeen, SD

640 
WWUS73 KABR 290422
NPWABR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1022 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

...STRONG WINDS DIMINISHING...

.BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ON A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WORKS INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER...30 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND 45 MPH GUSTS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SDZ007-008-290530-
/O.CAN.KABR.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-110129T0500Z/
MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRITTON...SISSETON
1022 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 25
MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE STILL PROBABLE FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT.

$$

DORN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
332 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY AM

IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WIND
SUPPORTING EFFICIENT MIXING OF +6C AIR DOWN FROM H85. WILL SEE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DROP SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WITH WEAK COLD
ADVECTION...BUT DONT EXPECT WE WILL DECOUPLE...SUGGESTING LOWS
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S AT WORST. COLD ADVECTION INTENSIFIES DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. A
VERY WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED IN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY WILL
SUPPORT JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING FOR LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...THOUGH DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THE MODELS DEPICTION OF LOW MOISTURE TRAPPED IN
THE LOWEST 3 TO 5KFT AS ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. H85
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -15C DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...SQUARELY IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMINISCENT OF MOST OF DECEMBER...TRANSLATES INTO LIGHT QPF/SNOW
THROUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. CLOUD COVER AND COLD LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THERMOMETER WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH ONCE COLD
AIR IS IN PLACE FOR END OF WEEKEND/START OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES AGREE PRETTY WELL EARLY ON IN THE
LONG TERM AND THEN DIVERGE SOME LATE. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH TWO
SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET
STREAMS. THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL PHASE/MERGE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A LARGE CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST
US EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL US. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE SOME ON
HOW TO HANDLE THIS CIRCULATION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THEY
ALSO SHOW DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH TO BUILD THE HEIGHTS OVER OUR
REGION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THUS...EXPECT ARCTIC AIR TO HOLD IN TIGHT OVER OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ALONG WITH A BROAD 70H
LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION ALOFT...EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY...ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALL OF
THE LATEST MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT QPF DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS. HAVE THE
REST OF THE PERIOD DRY AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING MORE TO THE WEST
ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AFFECTED SOME FOR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. STILL HAVE IT PRETTY COLD FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. MONDAY
NIGHT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. MAY
HAVE TO ADJUST THESE TEMPERATURES SOME MORE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE
EC AND GEM SHOW WARMER THICKNESSES LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS THE FLOW STRAIGHT FROM THE NORTH WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.
THUS...TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IF
THE GFS WORKS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST TO NORTHWEST AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS INTO LATE THIS EVENING.
ALSO...MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER
06Z WITH THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY. EXPECT THESE MVFR STRATUS TO
OVERTAKE THE TAF SITES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
213 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-292015-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
213 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011 /113 PM MST FRI JAN 28 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF
THE WORK WEEK...A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

CONNELLY