Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
NORTHWEST DEWPOINT GRADIENT RATHER SHARP WITH 50S DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING IN AGAINST DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. AN AREA OF CU HAS FORMED
ALONG THIS GRADIENT. ALSO SEEING SOME CUMULUS BUBBLING UP ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN CWA AND STILL COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS POP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT.
EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR INCREASE.
FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE REGION MOVES ATOP THE DAKOTAS AS WELL.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND WILL PUSH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY WEST AND
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/IOWA/MISSOURI BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF RIDGE RIDING
SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
IN THE DAY SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH ELONGATED
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO TEXAS. THE LOW MOVES
VERY LITTLE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY BEGINS TO PUSH
EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. DECENT WAA WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND LOOKS TO BRING AN ABUNDANCE OF
WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION...AIDING IN FAIRLY STRONG
PERIODS OF INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE...LOOKS AS THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH ALL BUT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH TAKES OVER. WILL
KEEP SCHC/CHC POPS IN PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO
TEMPERATURES A GOOD CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME LATE AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 3200-4500 FEET WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS WELL. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 06Z OR
SO...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
406 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-100915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
406 AM CDT SAT JUL 9 2011 /306 AM MDT SAT JUL 9 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
A FEW OF THOSE COULD PROVE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND
BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TDK