Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Aberdeen, SD

625 
WWUS53 KABR 090412
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1112 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

SDC065-117-119-090422-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110709T0415Z/
SULLY SD-HUGHES SD-STANLEY SD-
1112 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL STANLEY...
NORTHERN HUGHES AND SOUTH CENTRAL SULLY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1115
PM CDT/1015 PM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4472 9998 4437 9968 4421 10030 4448 10055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0412Z 240DEG 25KT 4443 10004

$$
CONNELLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
924 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF TSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH THE BULK OF
THE STORMS STAYING IN ND. THE TAIL END OF THIS LINE STRETCHES INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SD. ADJUSTED POPS THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LACK OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MOST OF
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN GENERATED ON THE LEE SIDE OF A TROUGH AXIS.
AS THIS TROF PUSHES EAST THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL DIMINISH AS IT
PASSES. UPDATED ZONES A COUPLE OF TIMES EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
ADDITIONS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO CONVECTIVE WATCHES. SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CANCEL REST OF SVR 612 IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. SEE UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WATCHING ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. CU FIELD HAS
FORMED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITHIN AREA OF 2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND
NO CAP...BUT SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO POP
A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS WITHIN THIS AREA ALL DAY BUT HAVE YET TO SEE
ANYTHING. STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AND A FEW STORMS HERE ARE
POSSIBLE AS SOME OF THE CU IS TRYING TO BUBBLE UP A BIT MORE SO
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. AREA OF BIGGER CONCERN IS
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...MORE SO WESTERN ND AND NORTHERN SD.
HERE...CAPE VALUES HAVE EXCEEDED 3000 J/KG AND SHEAR IS MORE
IMPRESSIVE. TOR WATCH 611 ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
ND WHERE SHEAR/LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONGEST. MODELS STILL
TARGETING ND THE HARDEST...WITH SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN SD AS WELL. ALTHOUGH...MOST SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING A FEW STORM CLUSTERS OR
SUPERCELLS TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT OF UNR CWA AND ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL SD. STILL NOT EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO REACH JAMES VALLEY
UNTIL PERHAPS AROUND 03Z OR A BIT LATER. THREAT FOR SVR WILL STILL
EXIST AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES...BUT WILL REALLY BEGIN TO LOSE SVR
THREAT AS YOU APPROACH I-29.

UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR STORMS. AREA OF SVR THREAT SHIFTS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY...MAINLY COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN ONE
HALF OF THE CWA. SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT
AND WILL AWAIT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG
THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL AS THIS LOW PRESSURE
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BEGINS
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL SHIFT PRECIP CHANCE A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING STABLE CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME PCPN
CHANCES POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY...LLM WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE
REGION. THE ADDED LLM...ALONG WITH SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING ACROSS
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN SCHC TO CHC POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS...WILL BROAD BRUSH
THE CWA WITH PCPN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND THEN TREND TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHTS START CLIMBING OUT AHEAD
OF WEST COAST TROF.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WHILE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND IN THE
EARLY MORNING COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
KABR TERMINAL. ALL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY 08Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-090900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
359 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 /259 AM MDT FRI JUL 8 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STORMS WILL FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER STARTS WEST RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS RAPIDLY EAST. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DIMINISHES
RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. STORMS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE
THE FLOOD THREAT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALREADY HARD HIT BY STORMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...THOUGH
NONE OF THE DAYS PRESENT US WITH A SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOOD THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING...AND
OVERNIGHT.

CONNELLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
537 PM CDT FRI JUL 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 NW LAKE CITY          45.77N 97.49W
07/08/2011                   MARSHALL           SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER AT LAKE CITY LOOKING NORTHWEST REPORTS FUNNEL
            CLOUD

&&

NWS