Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Aberdeen, SD

632 
WWUS53 KABR 230642
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
142 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

SDC013-230653-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-110823T0700Z/
BROWN SD-
142 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT OF THE
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4570 9747 4571 9793 4595 9778 4594 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 271DEG 32KT 4581 9761

$$

SDC091-230700-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-110823T0700Z/
MARSHALL SD-
142 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
MARSHALL COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRITTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
MARSHALL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4570 9747 4571 9793 4595 9778 4594 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 271DEG 32KT 4581 9761
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
PARKIN

095 
WWUS53 KABR 230656
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
156 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

SDC091-230706-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0206.000000T0000Z-110823T0700Z/
MARSHALL SD-
156 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT/100 AM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4570 9747 4571 9793 4595 9778 4594 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0656Z 271DEG 32KT 4581 9744

$$
PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2011

.UPDATE...

PER WATER VAPOR LOOP...NICE LOOKING S/W IS MOVING EAST/SE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ON THE LEADING EDGE/LEFT EXIT
REGION OF MID LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS MAY SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE TNT...MAINLY EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY. THAT SAID KABR 00Z SOUNDINGS HAD A PRETTY GOOD CAP
SO ANY ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED OVERNIGHT. LLJ
IS ALSO FOCUSED LATE TNT OVER MINNESOTA SO ANY UPSCALE GROWTH OF
CONVECTION OVER NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS MOVING E/SE
ACROSS MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT ALONG EDGE OF EML CAP. LOW TEMPS LOOK
FINE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

INTERESTING WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE DAKOTAS THROUGH NEXT 48
HOURS. HAVE TWO WEAK YET DISTINCT SHORTWAVES...ONE PASSING THOUGH
THE EASTERN CWA...ANOTHER IN MONTANA. H7 TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN
THE LOW TEES...THUS THE CAP HAS SO FAR OVERWHELMED OUR CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION...DESPITE VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS AND SEVERAL WEAK
BOUNDARIES. ALSO WATCHING A DRY LINE DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S AND 50S. AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES...AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD STILL FORM
AHEAD OF THE WAVES OR ALONG THE BOUNDARIES/DRY LINE...PROGRESSING
EAST OVERNIGHT. STORM ENVIRONMENT FEATURES STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT FOR THE
SISSETON HILLS AS LOW LEVEL JET FORMS ACROSS THE EAST TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION INTO MINNESOTA. FOR TUESDAY...WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND A SHALLOW INVERSION...ALONG WITH A DRY LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS IN WESTERLY FLOW SUGGESTS A RAPID WARM UP AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES BORDERING THE CENTURY MARK. WILL ALSO SEE VERY LOW
HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
30S AND 40S WEST RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE
TUESDAY...FORCING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A RATHER PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST OF THE
REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING ADDED LLM AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH A PASSING MID LEVEL TROF WILL RESULT IN A SCHC FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND FRONT ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT A RATHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. A SW LLJ AND WAA WILL BRING A
CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN BY
SUNDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID
70S. MONDAY COULD BE JUST AS COLD IF NOT COLDER THEN SUNDAY AS
TEMPS AT H85 ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM OR EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST AT KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
558 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-231100-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
558 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011 /458 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HEAT INDICES APPROACH 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DORN