Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Aberdeen, SD

244 
WWUS53 KABR 182204
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
504 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

SDC021-031-182215-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-110818T2215Z/
CORSON SD-CAMPBELL SD-
404 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CAMPBELL AND NORTHEASTERN CORSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT/515 PM
CDT/...

AT 359 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
WEST OF KENEL...OR 11 MILES EAST OF MCLAUGHLIN...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KENEL AROUND 415 PM MDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4576 10063 4595 10064 4595 10033 4573 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 271DEG 20KT 4585 10055
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
FOWLE

782 
WWUS53 KABR 182219
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

SDC021-031-182229-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-110818T2215Z/
CORSON SD-CAMPBELL SD-
419 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL AND
NORTHEASTERN CORSON COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4576 10063 4595 10064 4595 10033 4573 10036
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 271DEG 20KT 4585 10055

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
256 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOPING A LINE OF T-STORMS NEAR THE
MO RIVER...THEN PROPAGATE THE LINE EWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS ALSO INDICATING AN EARLY END TO THE SEVERE
WX LATER THIS EVENING. DRIER...SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF SFC LOW/UPPER TROUGH. H85 TEMPS
COOL 7-8C BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...COOLING MOST AREAS ABOUT 15 DEGREES
FROM TODAYS MAX TEMPS. MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY WITH STRONG H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES REMAINING IN PLACE AND MODELS HINTING AT ANOTHER H5 SPEED
MAX MOVING THROUGH. SFC HIGH SLIDES SEWD ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING
FOR SELY RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AND AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH AREAS OF MID-LEVEL/ACCAS CLOUDS AND A
FEW SPRINKLES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS AGREE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER THERE IS TIMING AND PLACEMENT
ISSUES WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVER RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH LLM POOLING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. THE LLM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WARMING INTO THE MID 60S. THE ADDED
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROF COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROF IS SHOWN TO DEEPEN OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER
ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH...TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-191030-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
519 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2011 /419 AM MDT THU AUG 18 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
INITIAL STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG OR
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS TO
TRANSITION EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER TYPES LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

DORN