Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

.UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS FOR PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS THIS
EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS
STABILIZES. WILL SEND OUT A ZFP UPDATE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS CONTINUED THRU MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER N-CENTRAL/NERN SD IN AN AREA OF
WAA/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST AND ACTUALLY
RE- STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THUS BELIEVE SCATTERED
TSTMS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PERHAPS RE-
ORIENTING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...ALSO
WATCHING AREAS OF BUBBLING CUMULUS OVER THE BLACK HILLS...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF AGITATED CLOUDS INVOF OF KVTN. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS PER HI-RES
MODELS /HRRR AND 12Z SPC WRF/ WITH A GENERAL STORM MOTION TO THE
E/SE. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD MOVE
INTO THE FAR WRN CWA THIS EVENING...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THAT
POTENTIAL. ALL IN ALL...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE TYPE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN AND ERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. BY
AFTERNOON...MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ADVECTING A STOUT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ WITH 700 MB TEMPS RISING AOA +12C.
MLCIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA REMAINS AOA -100 J/KG THUS THE AMS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS NWRN SD WHERE THE MLCIN IS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER...AND A
REEMERGENCE OF THE LLJ IS POSSIBLE AROUND OR AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
TEMPS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S WEST. OVERNIGHT MONDAY...A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
APPROACH THE NRN PLAINS FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE BEST FORCING FROM
ANY LEAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ND...THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS LEAKING SWD INTO THE ND/SD BORDER
COUNTIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. A
POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE US/CANADA
BORDER...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA
BY MID AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S AND 70S/...INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG/ AND WIND SHEAR
/EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-40 KTS/ WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS. SPC CURRENTLY MUCH OF THE ERN CWA OUTLOOKED IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
AZ/NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NWLY FLOW
ALOFT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FORENOON. GLOBAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. GFS AND GEM KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC HIGHS SLIDING
SEWD THROUGH MN...LIKELY LEADING TO A BETTER RETURN FLOW SETUP
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ECMWF MORE ZONAL WITH THE FLOW...INDUCING
A STRONG SFC LOW OVER SW ND ON FRIDAY AND A RESULTING DRIER S/SWLY
SFC FLOW. KEPT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TACT...TRENDING MORE
TOWARD CONSENSUS. BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MID AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
IN THE KMBG VCNTY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...FOWLE
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-150915-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
403 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011 /303 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LIGHTNING WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
818 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S MCLAUGHLIN          45.78N 100.81W
08/14/2011  E70 MPH          CORSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100067

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
843 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE LITTLE EAGLE      45.74N 100.77W
08/14/2011                   CORSON             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100068

MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE MCLAUGHLIN         45.80N 100.79W
08/14/2011  E60 MPH          CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

0742 PM     HAIL             1 SE MCINTOSH           45.91N 101.33W
08/14/2011  E1.00 INCH       CORSON             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0754 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S MCLAUGHLIN          45.80N 100.81W
08/14/2011  E65 MPH          CORSON             SD   PUBLIC

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S MCLAUGHLIN          45.78N 100.81W
08/14/2011  E70 MPH          CORSON             SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

0835 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE LITTLE EAGLE      45.74N 100.77W
08/14/2011                   CORSON             SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100064 ABR1100065 ABR1100066 ABR1100067 ABR1100068

WFOABR

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