Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Aberdeen, SD

597 
WWUS53 KABR 060108
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
808 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

SDC021-031-060130-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0174.000000T0000Z-110806T0130Z/
CORSON SD-CAMPBELL SD-
708 PM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CAMPBELL AND NORTHEASTERN CORSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT/830 PM
CDT/...

AT 705 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
EAST OF MAHTO...OR 12 MILES EAST OF MCLAUGHLIN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KENEL AROUND 715 PM MDT...
  POLLOCK AROUND 830 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN OCCASIONALLY PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10084 4595 10029 4576 10027 4572 10072
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 271DEG 26KT 4578 10053
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$
HINTZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
741 PM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.UPDATE...
A GUST FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM MCLAUGHLIN SOUTHWEST TO SCENIC.
THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
REACHING INTO THE JAMES VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH AND SOME WARNINGS ARE ONGOING. INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY
OUT WEST THIS EVENING. MAJOR THREATS WITH THIS LINE WILL BE VERY
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH IN A HALF HOUR. AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING INCREASES BEHIND THE GUST FRONT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE COLD POOL REGION
OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED TO SEE JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS CAN PROPOGATE. SEE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY GOING ON ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY MAINLY WEST OF
THE CWA...BUT A WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE STORMS DRIFTING
EASTWARD OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS A BIT
STRONGER. LOOKS AS THOUGH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE ITS
TIME TRACKING EASTWARD...AND DO NOT EXPECT THE EASTERN HALF OR SO
OF THE CWA TO SEE AN PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING AT THE
EARLIEST. DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO WENT WITH THE MENTION OF SEVERE JUST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES OVER MINNESOTA SATURDAY
NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN BEHIND IT OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS SUNDAY NIGHT GOES AS A WEAK ELONGATED LOW
REACHES THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH WITH BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF KEEP
THE MAIN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA. WILL STICK WITH JUST A SCHC POP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA FOR NOW UNTIL A MORE CLEAR SOLUTION COMES ABOUT.

EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...THEN A BIT OF A REBOUND
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS STILL SHOWING A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SO LEFT POPS IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. AS THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
EVENING...WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY
SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO
THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING
DROPPING INTO THE 50S. AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SIMILAR
TO MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IF ANY TSRA MANAGE TO MOVE ACROSS
KMBG/KPIR/KABR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHERE CONDITIONS COULD
FALL TO MVFR. BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRA ACROSS KMBG/KPIR. -TSRA/TSRA
CHANCES SHIFT TO KABR/KATY BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-060900-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
350 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2011 /250 AM MDT FRI AUG 5 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE NUMEROUS
AND MOVE EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OFF AND ON CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MOHR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
744 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE FIRESTEEL          45.45N 101.26W
08/05/2011                   DEWEY              SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROOF BLOWN OFF OF STRUCTURE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100044

CM