Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Aberdeen, SD

644 
WWUS53 KABR 221047
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

SDC075-221057-
/O.CAN.KABR.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-110722T1100Z/
JONES SD-
547 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JONES COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4390 10088 4407 10058 4386 10037 4375 10057
      4376 10060 4374 10062 4371 10067
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 232DEG 12KT 4394 10051

$$
WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
455 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA...AND THEN AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

CURRENTLY...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
RECEIVING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE RESULT OF A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THIS HOUR.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THIS CURRENT BATCH OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING
UNTIL BEST PVA/FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DEPARTS BY MID-
DAY. THE RETURN FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP WILL ALSO BRING NOTABLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...MAKING IT FEEL NOTABLY HOT
OUTSIDE BY PEAK HEATING TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES OR SO FOR AN HOUR TWO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 212. NO
PLANS AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE A TWO HOUR LONG HEAT ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH. BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SETTING WILL INCLUDE A LEE-OF-THE-HILLS SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN
SODAK...AND ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO THIS CWA WITH
PLENTY 0F INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION POTENTIAL /IE...SUPERCELLS INITIALLY AND POSSIBLY SOME
SORT OF MCS EVENTUALLY/ AS THE SHORTWAVE TROF DEPICTED THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OREGON TRUDGES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING. THE TRIPLE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO INITIALLY
SWITCHES TO A HEAVY RAIN/DAMAGING WINDS THREAT LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
PWATS ARE HIGH OVERNIGHT /1.50+INCHES/ SUGGESTING HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL WILL BE A FACET OF CONVECTION...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF
ANYONE WILL SEE EXCESSIVELY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OUT...AND THAT MAY NOT BE A BAD IDEA TO ADD INTO THE MIX OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST ZONES LATER TODAY IF IT BEGINS TO LOOK
LIKE TRAINING STORMS OR SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE FINALLY SETTLING
DOWN...TWO WEEKS AFTER ALL THE WET WEATHER OF EARLY JULY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE WATER TABLE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 2+INCHES OF
RAINFALL WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TO RE-AGGRAVATE HYDRO ISSUES
AROUND THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS SHORTWAVE OVER OREGON TAKES ITS
SWEET TIME PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA. ITS SURFACE LOW REFLECTION
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY PEAK
HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STILL PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR TO GEN-UP SOME CONVECTION. RATHER SHORT-LIVED POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH...AS ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL ONLY SPEND
A SHORT TIME WITHIN THIS CWA BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO MINNESOTA.
BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOWS PUSH EAST THROUGH THE CWA ON
SATURDAY...COOLER AND DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN ADVECTS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST SUNDAY WITH PLEASANT
CONDITIONS UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY SHOULD
BE NEAR TO PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY AS A SFC TROF ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY MORNING AN INCREASED LLJ MAY
ALLOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DRIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD BEFORE
THE REGION BECOMES CAPPED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE TROF COMBINED
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AT BOTH H5 AND H7 AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME TSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. HOWEVER
SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND MAY BRING SOME BRIEF MARGINAL CONDITIONS
TO KPIR/KMBG IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED SOME VCTS TO KPIR FOR
NOW. THIS EVENING LOOK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD TSTORM ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
542 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-221045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
542 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2011 /442 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.