Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Aberdeen, SD

001 
WWUS53 KABR 150611
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
111 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

SDC021-031-150620-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-110715T0615Z/
CORSON SD-CAMPBELL SD-
111 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CAMPBELL AND EAST CENTRAL
CORSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 AM CDT/1215 AM MDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4569 9976 4561 10040 4576 10049 4595 10004
      4595 9995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0610Z 246DEG 28KT 4581 9991

$$
MOHR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
720 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

.UPDATE...
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES.

SOUTH DAKOTA IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AN AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH RIDING
ALONG THE MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. THE SLIGHT MID AND UPPER LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WEST RIVER AND OVER POINTS EAST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH H7
TEMPS IN THE 12.5-13C RANGE FOR 00Z FRIDAY...SO THE QUESTION OF THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAN WE MUSTER ENOUGH SFC HEATING TO BREAK
THIS MID-LAYER CAP.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL OF HOURS. THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND NOON. WITH MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 40 KNOTS...SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SHOULD
PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SETTING UP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THUS...ANTICIPATE
WHILE PWATS ARE 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...SO TOO
WILL BE H85/H7 TEMPERATURES. THIS MEANS FOR THE MOST PART...WILL
SEE A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO MOSTLY
NORTH OF THE CWA. THAT LEAVES US WITH HOT...SULTRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
ALL TAF LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE COULD AFFECT THE TAF LOCATIONS.
WILL WATCH AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-
     SPINK-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-152045-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
336 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011 /236 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ALSO...WITH THE POTENTIAL HOT SPELL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCESSIVE HEAT INDICIES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 PM CDT THU JUL 14 2011

SDZ003-150545-
CORSON-
1046 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2011

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN CORSON
COUNTY UNTIL 1145 PM MDT...

AT 1045 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BLACK HORSE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BULLHEAD TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LITTLE EAGLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BULLHEAD...LITTLE EAGLE...
MAHTO...MCLAUGHLIN AND WALKER.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

FOWLE